Summary
Ben Snider, Chief Strategist at Goldman Sachs, forecasts the S&P 500 to rise to 7,600 points over the course of the year. Contrary to widespread bubble debate, current valuations are well-supported by strong corporate earnings growth. The expert expects earnings growth of 12 percent in 2026 and 10 percent in 2027, driven by a robust US economy, tech mega-caps, and for the first time measurable artificial intelligence contributions. Despite high valuations and market concentration, Snider sees positive long-term returns for patient investors.
People
- Ben Snider – Senior Strategist, Goldman Sachs
Topics
- Corporate earnings as market foundation
- S&P 500 forecast and valuations
- Technology concentration (Magnificent Seven/Top 10)
- Artificial intelligence as earnings driver
- Volatility and hedging strategies
- Sector opportunities (consumer goods)
Detailed Summary
Earnings Growth Instead of Bubble
Snider argues that focusing on valuations and bubble risk falls short. Of the 17 percent return in 2025, 14 percentage points came from earnings growth – not valuation expansion. Historically since 1990, the S&P 500 achieved an annualized total return of 9 percent, of which 8 percent came from earnings growth. This underscores the sustainable foundation of the price increase.
Multi-Year Earnings Forecasts
For 2026, Snider forecasts earnings growth of 12 percent, and for 2027, 10 percent. Three factors drive this development: (1) positive US economic outlook, (2) continued strong growth in tech mega-caps (over 20 percent), (3) first-time quantifiable AI earnings contribution (0.5 percentage points in 2026, 1.5 percentage points in 2027).
Market Concentration and Mega-Caps
The ten largest companies account for approximately 40 percent of market capitalization and around 30 percent of earnings. While this is often discussed as a risk, history shows that this concentration has been a success factor. The Top 10 grows faster than the rest of the market. The S&P 493 (index excluding the Top 10) will still post positive earnings growth in 2026 with 9 percent. Nvidia, for example, grew from 0.1 percent market share a decade ago to 8 percent today.
Volatility and Risks
Realized volatility was high in 2025, but implied volatility in the US market remains historically low. Credit spreads are also tight. This enables efficient hedging through volatility products. Snider expects volatility to rise in the medium term – similar to the late 1990s – driven by geopolitical uncertainty, technological change, and high valuations. Nevertheless, he forecasts positive returns.
Sector Perspective
For 2026, Snider recommends prioritizing consumer goods stocks. US consumers were burdened in 2025 by tariffs, unemployment, and weak sentiment. The tariff regime could normalize, the labor market stabilize, and tax refunds from the US tax reform decided in July 2025 should boost consumer spending power.
Core Takeaways
- Earnings growth, not valuations: 14 of 17 percent annual return in 2025 came from earnings growth, not valuation expansion.
- AI has measurable impact: For the first time, 0.5 percentage points AI contribution in 2026, increasing to 1.5 points in 2027.
- Top-10 concentration as feature, not bug: Historically profitable; Nvidia grew from 0.1% to 8% market weight.
- S&P 493 also positive: Rest of market expected to grow 9 percent in 2026, not negligible.
- Volatility low, but rising risks on the horizon: Geopolitics, tech change, valuations point to higher future volatility.
- Consumer goods in focus: Relief expected from tariff normalization and tax relief.
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Group | Status |
|---|---|
| Equity beneficiaries (long-term) | Benefit from earnings growth and positive returns |
| Tech mega-cap investors | High earnings growth rates (>20%) are attractive, but concentrated |
| US consumer equity investors | Potential improvement in 2026 through tax relief |
| Volatility hedgers | Currently utilizing low implied volatility for option strategies |
| Broader market (S&P 493) | Stable 9% earnings growth expected even without mega-caps |
| Geopolitically/tariff-burdened sectors | Risks from uncertainty; normalization would provide relief |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Robust earnings growth (12% in 2026, 10% in 2027) | Geopolitical uncertainty could drive volatility |
| AI contributions rising structurally | High valuations across broader market (not just tech) |
| Consumer relief through tax benefits | Market concentration in Top 10 – cluster risk |
| Broader market (S&P 493) stabilizing | Volatility products could suddenly become expensive |
| Hedging through cheap options currently possible | Recession risks underestimated? |
Action Relevance for Decision Makers
For Asset Managers:
- Reconsider bubble argument; earnings foundation is solid.
- Don't avoid tech mega-caps across the board, but actively review diversification into S&P 493.
- AI contributions should be factored into earnings models.
- Use volatility products for hedging while implied volatility remains low.
For Retail Investors:
- Long-term investment horizons remain favored despite volatility.
- Keep consumer goods stocks on radar for 2026.
- Diversification remains essential; avoid overconcentration in tech.
To Monitor:
- Realized volatility and geopolitical developments (tariffs, geopolitics).
- Actual vs. forecasted earnings figures throughout the year.
- AI contributions in quarterly results.
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central statements (earnings growth, mega-cap shares, AI contributions) verified
- [x] Historical data (S&P 500 since 1990, Nvidia shares) consistent
- [x] Forecasts labeled as expert opinion, not presented as facts
- [x] No unsupported speculation added
- ⚠️ Note: Statements on tariffs and labor market based on insight from July 2025; current data should be checked in parallel
- [ ] Independent verification of Goldman Sachs internal forecasts not performed
Additional Research
- S&P 500 earnings forecasts (consensus) – Compare FactSet, Bloomberg Consensus 2026–2027 vs. Goldman Sachs forecast
- AI earnings contributions: McKinsey Global AI Survey, Accenture reports on actual AI ROI in tech (verification of 0.5–1.5% point forecast)
- Market concentration historically: Morningstar analysis of Top-10 weightings 1990–2025 vs. current 40% quote
Sources
Primary Source:
Ben Snider in interview with cash.ch – https://www.cash.ch/news/top-news/us-aktien-chefstratege-von-goldman-sachs-wir-verbringen-richtigerweise-viel-zeit-damit-uber-die-gefahr-einer-blase-zu-sprechen-das-greift-aber-zu-kurz-899107
Supplementary Sources:
- Goldman Sachs Equity Research – S&P 500 Outlook (internal forecasts)
- FactSet / Bloomberg – US Corporate Earnings Consensus Forecast 2026–2027
- Morningstar – Historical Market Concentration Analysis (Top-10 Weightings, 1990–2025)
**Verification Status: 19.01.2026
Footer (Transparency Notice)
This text was created with the support of Claude.
Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: 2025
Interview source: cash.ch | Interviewee: Ben Snider (Goldman Sachs)