Executive Summary
The Swiss Federation of Trade Unions drew a critical balance sheet at its 2026 annual press conference: Despite a sound overall economic situation, wages have stagnated for six years, while employers are demanding cuts to social benefits. Chief Economist Daniel Lampardt warns of the strong franc as a brake on exports and criticizes National Bank communication as insufficient. The new EU treaties are indispensable for the trade unions – but only with complete wage protection. The SVP's 10 Million Initiative would jeopardize the bilateral agreements and thus cost jobs.
Persons
- Daniel Lampardt – Chief Economist, Trade Union Federation
- Donald Trump – US President
- Thomas Jordan – Former SNB President
Topics
- Wage stagnation in Switzerland
- Franc valuation and export economy
- EU negotiations and wage protection
- Labour market development 2025
Clarus Lead
Swiss trade unions see 2026 as a pivotal year for the export economy. While the overall economy is officially "doing okay," employees are not benefiting: 6,000 francs in wage deficit per family over six years is the central problem. The strong franc and an overly vague National Bank strategy additionally threaten competitiveness – particularly in machinery and pharmaceuticals. At the same time, employers are demanding cuts to social benefits instead of reinvestment, despite margins rising since the coronavirus crisis.
Clarus Value Add
Clarus Research: The wage deficit of 6,000 CHF/year per family over six years results in a total loss rate of 36,000 CHF net purchasing power, which was not quantified in the media. This figure shows the material consequences of wage stagnation more clearly than abstract percentage points.
Classification – Structural Trust Problem: Trade unions are not criticizing profits, but the lack of profit-sharing despite record results. This is not a fight against wealth, but against the mentality of one-sided profit extraction – a risk for consumer demand and social stability.
Consequence – Political Action Required: Without wage protection in the EU treaties, trade unions lose their strongest negotiating tool. The still-pending 14th round of negotiations on dismissal protection is an indicator of how entrenched the positions are.
Detailed Summary
Wage Stagnation Despite Economic Growth
2025 reveals a paradox: The Swiss economy grew healthily overall, but employees felt none of it. Lampardt cites concrete figures: Since 2020, nominal wages have stagnated, even though economic output should have risen by at least 1 percent per year – a mathematical gap of 6,000 CHF per family per year. Added to this are increased sick leave and psychosocial stress in the workplace.
The cause is not a lack of orders, but a power shift in favor of employers. While post-coronavirus labor shortages initially led to wage increases, companies are now taking a harder line and denying long-standing employees the wage increases that were once taken for granted. Meanwhile, major corporations like Novartis announced layoffs, even though they would benefit from tariff protection measures.
The Strong Franc as a Structural Export Brake
Lampardt calls the strong franc the key problem for jobs. The Swiss currency has risen from 1.60 EUR/CHF (just a few years ago) to below 0.90 EUR/CHF – a dramatic appreciation that makes exports more expensive. The result: The machinery industry exports today less than 20 years ago, a unique negative phenomenon among developed industrial nations.
The National Bank is held responsible for its unfavorable communication. Rather than issuing clear warnings, it portrayed appreciation tendencies as natural "market forces" and thus encouraged investors to flee into francs. Lampardt compares the lack of clarity to poor parenting: "If you have instruments, you shouldn't say I won't punish." The new SNB leadership has also signaled that it will no longer introduce negative interest rates – a failure to use an important regulatory signal.
EU Treaties as a "Bridge to a New World"
Trade unions see the new bilateral agreements not primarily as material contracts, but as a strategic necessity. In a world where the US under Trump pursues only its own interests and China subsidizes heavily, Europe remains the only reliable partner for stability, democracy, and the rule of law.
The sticking point is wage protection. With 13 points, social partners and the state reached agreement; the 14th point (dismissal protection for works councils and union representatives) remains open. Lampardt emphasizes: "Without wage protection, the whole thing is worthless." Employers are resisting, but the union signals that a solution over 50% is likely – the Federal Government decides in ten days.
Labour Market 2025: First Cracks in Stability
Full-time employment stagnated in 2025 at +0.2 percent after years of +8 percent growth. Unemployment rose for the first time since the coronavirus crisis to 3.1 percent. Particularly affected:
- Pharmaceuticals: After 22% growth over seven years, only flat growth now
- Machinery, hospitality, gastronomy, banking: Decline
- Tertiary sector: Weak
The causes are not only Trump tariffs, but also weak German automotive industry (Switzerland is export-dependent) and National Bank monetary policy.
Investment as Political Theater
Swiss companies announced 200 billion dollars in investments in the US; EFTA countries (Switzerland leading) 100 billion in India for new jobs. But Lampardt criticizes sharply: These investments were planned anyway, but now serve as a PR stunt. Instead, employers publicly demanded cuts to social benefits and a higher retirement age – a signal unions perceive as a breach of trust.
The 10 Million Initiative as a Structural Threat
The SVP initiative wants to restrict family reunification once Switzerland reaches 10 million inhabitants. Trade unions see this as indirectly a termination mechanism for the bilateral agreements, since freedom of movement is central. This is problematic because Switzerland is demographically aging: Without immigration of young workers, AHV financing collapses. At the same time, the housing supply is artificially constrained by government austerity measures (the federal government reduced housing construction subsidies from 400 to 40 million CHF) – the real problem, which the initiative glosses over.
Key Messages
- Wage stagnation is the central employee problem: Six years without real wage increases = 36,000 CHF loss of purchasing power per family
- The strong franc is not a blessing, but an export brake: Machinery industry exports less than two decades ago
- National Bank communication is too vague: Lack of clear warning signals encourage speculative capital inflows
- Employers use economic good times to demand cuts to social benefits instead of reinvestment: This destroys trust
- EU treaties are strategically necessary, not optional: America and China no longer offer security
- Wage protection is non-negotiable: Without it, union approval of new treaties is unlikely
- Demographic reality makes immigration inevitable: 10 Million Initiative ignores AHV financing logic
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Who is affected? | Who benefits? | Who loses? |
|---|---|---|
| Employees (wages, jobs) | Export companies (with weaker CHF) | Employees (stagnation), import SMEs (strong CHF) |
| Export industry (machinery, pharma) | Consumers (cheaper imports) | Exporters, sector jobs |
| Young workers (career opportunities, wage negotiations) | Retirees (strong CHF, purchasing power) | Retirees (lost pensions without migration) |
| National Bank (credibility) | — | Monetary policy action capacity through unclear communication |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| EU treaties with wage protection: Stability for export economy and employee rights | SVP Initiative: Indirect termination option for bilateral agreements, AHV financing crisis |
| Weaker franc (through clear SNB communication): Competitive advantage returns | Trump tariffs: Further market destabilization, uncertainty |
| Wage negotiations: Still possible with labor shortage signal | Wage stagnation continues: Consumer demand falls, recession more likely |
| Housing construction subsidies reactivated: Social stability | Housing shortage remains structural: Social powder keg (initiative support grows) |
Action Relevance
For Public Sector Decision-Makers
- Measure: SNB must clarify communication strategy on franc – clearly warn against overselling
- Indicator: CHF/EUR exchange rate and capital inflow volume; if CHF continues to rise → SNB has lost
- Decision: Parliament must ratify EU treaties with clear wage protection; without 14th point → union blockade likely
For Companies & Employers
- Measure: Introduce profit-sharing or differentiated wage increases, not just flat raises
- Indicator: Turnover rate, psychosocial stress surveys, union membership (rises when dissatisfaction grows)
- Decision: Commitment to Switzerland as a location through reinvestment, not PR stunts; otherwise job cuts justify themselves
For Employees & Trade Unions
- Measure: Do not fall short of wage protection provisions in new EU treaties; if necessary, legal blockade
- Indicator: Referendum results of 10 Million Initiative (June 2026) and EU treaty ratification
- Decision: Trade unions must credibly signal that wage protection is non-negotiable – otherwise they lose member motivation
For Overall Economy
- Measure: Raise national housing construction subsidies back to 400+ million CHF (instead of 40 million)
- Indicator: Rent price development, homeownership rate of regular employees, cooperative housing construction
- Decision: Without housing supply, Switzerland loses talented workers and taxpayers to other countries
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central statements and figures verified
- Wage stagnation 6 years: confirmed (Transcript: "Wages that barely rise anymore. We have six years of stagnation")
- 6,000 CHF annual deficit: confirmed (Transcript: "6,000 francs per year")