Summary

Despite record passenger numbers, Swiss airline is earning a quarter less profit than the previous year. The reasons are volatile markets, rising costs, and a tense security situation in the Middle East, which forces the cancellation of flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv. CEO Jens Fehlinger cites specific factors: US tariffs are dampening demand, fuel prices are rising, and the airline cannot utilize all purchased aircraft – because engines are undergoing maintenance or pilots are scarce. At the same time, Swiss is considered a profit driver for the Lufthansa Group and is investing heavily in premium service and sustainable technologies.

People

Topics

  • Geopolitical risks – Middle East
  • Financial performance & profitability
  • Labor negotiations & working conditions
  • Climate goals & sustainable fuels
  • US tariffs & market volatility

Clarus Lead

Swiss is under pressure: Although 2025 saw record passenger numbers, profit fell by 25% to just under 500 million francs. CEO Fehlinger attributes this to a volatile market environment, exploding operating costs, and the new military situation in the Middle East. Immediate consequence: Flights to Dubai (planned from March 11) and Tel Aviv (earliest March 22) are cancelled. Relevant for decision-makers: The crisis reveals structural vulnerability of European aviation to geopolitical shocks – and the limits of efficiency gains against rising costs.

Detailed Summary

War situation and operational consequences

The new escalation in the Middle East forces Swiss to drastically reduce routes. Fehlinger emphasizes that safety comes first: For Dubai flights, a stable airport, functioning air traffic control, and – ideally – a ceasefire are needed. As of March 6, the interview date, a restart on March 11 was "probably not a realistic scenario." Tel Aviv remains closed until at least March 22. In parallel, Swiss had to organize an evacuation mission: 211 Swiss citizens were flown back from Dubai via Oman to Zurich – a 40-person team worked around the clock on it. Another oil flight via Edelweiss followed over the weekend. Of an estimated 5,000 stranded Swiss citizens, only a fraction could be evacuated this way.

Financial impact and cost dynamics

The previous year's result (690 million francs) will not be reached. Fehlinger cites a bundle of reasons: (1) US market: Bookings came much shorter notice, demand fell. (2) Budget competition: European low-cost airlines are pushing down prices. (3) Rising fees: Air traffic safety fees have increased massively. (4) Environmental costs: These are doubling annually. (5) Aircraft outages: Engines undergoing overhaul and pilot shortages keep capacity on the ground. (6) Fuel: While there was relief in 2024 from lower oil prices, prices are now rising again. Swiss partially hedges through advance fuel purchases (fuel hedging), but cannot completely offset rising costs.

Pilot conflict and wage negotiations

The core problem: Pilots terminated the collective labor agreement at the end of 2025 because promised improvements failed to materialize – particularly regarding planning of private life. Fehlinger admits that too much hope was placed in part-time models and service scheduling options that proved technically unworkable. From April, negotiations begin. Over 50% of cockpit crew currently work less than 100%. Fehlinger wants more full-time pilots to get aircraft in the air – but that remains "an individual decision." The Lufthansa Group as parent company benefits: Swiss is the profit cow and recently contributed a quarter of group profit.

Sustainable fuels and climate goals

Swiss commits to halving emissions by 2030 (vs. 2019 baseline). Concrete measures: new aircraft (Airbus 350) reduce CO₂ by 25%, efficient flight paths, optimization of altitude/speed. Last year, Swiss was the first airline to introduce a synthetic fuel tank (with Sinfuel). However, scaling is stalled: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) costs 3–10× more than kerosene, customers don't voluntarily pay premiums, and in 2026 only 2% SAF blending is regulatory requirement. A small plus: Shark-skin-shaped surface foils (Lufthansa tech) save up to 1% air resistance per long-haul flight.

Key messages

  • Profit down 25% despite record passenger numbers – a sign that volume doesn't guarantee profitability
  • Geopolitical shocks are immediately operational: Middle East war blocks key routes, forces detours and increases fuel costs
  • Structural cost crisis: Air safety fees, environmental regulations, and volatile fuel prices overlay efficiency gains
  • Pilot shortage is operationally critical: Over half of cockpit crew part-time; wage negotiations starting in April are decisive
  • Sustainable fuels are not yet scalable: SAF remains 3–10× more expensive; 2% mandatory blending is insufficient for climate goals
  • Swiss as group profit machine: Contributed a quarter to Lufthansa profit, despite declining profitability

Critical questions

  1. Evidence/data quality: Fehlinger mentions "over 5,000 stranded Swiss" in Oman but evacuates only 211 in the first mission. What source does the 5,000 figure come from, and how is it updated regularly? Are these registered inquiries with the FDFA or just estimates?

  2. Conflicts of interest: Swiss is 51% owned by Lufthansa Group. To what extent do group directives (e.g., regarding profitability or investments) influence Fehlinger's decisions independently of Swiss interests – for example in prioritizing premium segments?

  3. Causality – profit decline: Fehlinger attributes the -25% result to "volatile market environment" and "rising costs." How many percentage points of the decline are attributable to US market business, how much to European competition, and how much to personnel costs? Quantification would make the statement verifiable.

  4. Feasibility of climate goals: Target is emissions halving by 2030. Currently Swiss uses 2% SAF (regulatory requirement), synthetic fuels are 3–10× more expensive. What concrete measures (price, policy, tech) must occur for 2030 to actually achieve 50% less CO₂ per flight kilometer?

  5. Personnel planning under pressure: Over 50% of pilots are part-time. Fehlinger says these are "individual decisions," but negotiates with the union about creating more full-time positions. Are part-time models truly voluntary, or was pressure applied to reduce costs?

  6. Sustainability vs. business model: Swiss advertises Zurich–Barcelona flights for 100 francs, although rail is more sustainable. Fehlinger argues with travel time (3.5h rail vs. 2h flight including transfers). Was a true cost analysis (including CO₂ externalities) conducted, at what ticket price would rail be competitive?

  7. Geopolitical risk models: Fehlinger works with a crisis team and Lufthansa Group. Which early indicators would have justified an early booking ban to Dubai/Tel Aviv – and why wasn't this risk communicated to customers before the crisis escalated?

  8. Growth vs. efficiency: Fehlinger promises "profitable growth" for 2026/2027 to fly more routes internally (rather than via wetlease partners). How will this growth be realized (new routes, higher frequency, larger aircraft) when pilot bottlenecks exist simultaneously and engines are undergoing overhaul?

Other news items

  • Middle East evacuation: Edelweiss and Swiss coordinate return flights; approximately 5,000 Swiss still stranded abroad.
  • Routing bottlenecks: Besides North Pole Route and Turkey–Azerbaijan corridor, only Saudi Arabia path to Asia remains; Azerbaijan drone attacks could make this even tighter.

Sources

Primary source:

Tagesgespraech radio – Jens Fehlinger (Swiss-CEO) im Interview – SRF Radio (Recording March 7, 2026, broadcast March 8, 2026)

Verification status: ✓ 2026-03-09

This text was created with the support of an AI model.
Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-check: 2026-03-09