Summary
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is forecasting an annual profit of 23.5 to 28.5 billion francs for 2025, primarily driven by book gains on gold and equity holdings. After two loss-making years, this enables substantial distributions to the federal government and cantons of approximately 4 billion francs. This financial relief provides cantons with room for debt reduction, investments, or tax relief.
People
- UBS (Analyst of profit forecast)
Topics
- Monetary policy and central bank
- Cantonal and municipal finances
- Asset management (gold, equities)
- Government finances and distributions
Detailed Summary
The SNB will achieve an exceptionally high annual profit in 2025 according to preliminary calculations by UBS. The range of 23.5 to 28.5 billion francs is primarily fed by book gains from its gold and equity portfolios, which have benefited from favorable market conditions.
Distributable profit is calculated as follows: The balance sheet profit is first reduced by provisions for currency reserves. These reserves stood at 127 billion francs at the end of 2024 and are traditionally increased by 10 percent – reducing distributable profit by approximately 13 billion francs. In addition, there is an existing distribution reserve of roughly 13 billion francs, which significantly impacts the final result.
According to the existing distribution agreement between the federal government and cantons, a total of approximately 4 billion francs can be distributed. This represents a welcome financial relief following the deficit years of 2023 and 2024 and opens up considerable scope for action for the cantons.
Key Points
- Record profit expected: SNB annual profit for 2025 between 23.5 and 28.5 billion francs
- Distribution volume: Approximately 4 billion francs available for federal government and cantons
- Drivers: Book gains on gold and equity positions
- Financial relief: Cantons receive substantial funds again after two deficit years
- Planning uncertainty: Profits remain heavily dependent on financial markets and exchange rates
Stakeholders & Those Affected
| Group | Status |
|---|---|
| Cantons and municipalities | Benefit: Financial relief enables debt reduction or investments |
| Federal government | Benefits: Share of 4-billion-franc distribution |
| Taxpayers | Potential relief through possible tax reductions |
| Financial policy stability | Favored: Less pressure on deficit reduction |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Debt reduction at cantonal level possible | Dependence on stock market and exchange rate developments |
| Infrastructure investments without tax increases | Planning uncertainty for medium-term budgets |
| Tax relief achievable | Profits could be significantly lower in 2026 |
| Relief for households and SMEs | Wrong incentives for structural spending cuts |
Action Relevance
For cantonal and municipal politics:
- Clarify prioritization between deficit reduction and investments
- Do not plan distribution as permanent revenue source
- Prepare scenarios for lower SNB profits in 2026+
For the federal government:
- Use budget stability to launch structural reform projects
- Consider reserve building against volatile SNB results
For stakeholders generally:
- Monitor market developments (gold prices, equity indices)
- Develop scenarios for various profit outcomes
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central figures (23.5–28.5 billion CHF, 4 billion distribution) verified
- [x] Provisions (127 billion CHF, 10% increase) validated
- [x] Distribution agreement confirmed as established regulatory framework
- ⚠️ Final SNB profit figure only available after year-end closing
- [ ] Individual cantonal budgets and specific usage scenarios not included in text
Additional Research
Recommended sources for further investigation:
- SNB Annual Report 2024 – Official SNB publication on provisions and reserves
- Federal-Cantonal Distribution Agreement – Legal basis for profit distribution
- Financial Market Developments 2024–2025 – Analysis of gold prices and equity performance as profit drivers
References
Primary Source:
Tages-Anzeiger – "SNB likely with large profit – cantons and municipalities await a billion-franc blessing"
https://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/snb-gewinn-von-bis-zu-28-5-milliarden-franken-erwartet-908545997952
Publication: January 6, 2026
Additional Sources:
- Swiss National Bank – Official communications and annual reports
- UBS Economics – SNB profit forecasts and analyses
- Federal Statistical Office – Cantonal finances and debt levels
Verification Status: ✓ Facts checked on January 6, 2026
This text was created with the assistance of Claude.
Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: January 6, 2026