Handelsblatt Today: Market Start 2026 and Global Economic Outlook with Carsten Brzeski

Summary

At the start of 2026, Handelsblatt Today analyzes the first market movements and global economic trends. The DAX starts moderately with 0.3-0.4% gains, while Asian markets like the Hang Seng Index make significant advances. Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro Research at ING, describes the global economy in 2026 using culinary metaphors: Despite geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, he expects stable growth. AI investments remain a growth driver, while government programs support the economy. Germany could finally experience growth after years of stagnation – if investment funds finally flow out of the "ketchup bottle."

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Detailed Summary

Market Opening 2026: Moderate, but Hopeful

The new trading year started subdued. The DAX gained 0.8% at the start of trading, then fell back to 0.3-0.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 significantly stronger at over 1%. Low trading activity – many investors were still on holiday after New Year's Eve and New Year's Day – led to below-average volumes. Real insights into the 2026 trading year will only be possible on Monday when trading volume picks up.

Asian Markets Lead: China and Technology in Focus

The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong performed significantly stronger with almost 3% gains. Chinese technology companies like Tencent and Alibaba gained over 4%. The AI boom is fueling hopes: AI chip developer Shanghai Byron Technology doubled on the first trading day. German investors participate indirectly through emerging markets ETFs like the MSCI Emerging Markets, where China holds a 22% share. This ETF rose by 2%.

German Defense Stocks: Economically Sensitive to Peace and War

Defense stocks show remarkable volatility: They rise with negative news about peace talks (Ukraine-Russia), fall with positive signals. Hensoldt gained 3%, Rheinmetall 0.5%. Analysts attribute this to retail investor-driven sentiment swings. Fundamentally, order books are full regardless of the Ukraine conflict, as Western countries are investing massively in their defense capabilities.

Chip Sector Shines: iXtron and Süss Microtech Benefit

Chip stocks and chip equipment makers showed strong performance. iXtron jumped over 10%, Süss Microtech by 6%. The latter is planning a development center costing up to 45 million euros in Germany (not as usual in Asia) as part of an innovation initiative with ten planned new product launches in two years.

Precious Metals: Corrections After Record Highs

Following phenomenal gains in 2025 (double-digit for gold, triple-digit for silver), there were severe losses at the beginning of the week. These were partly profit-taking, partly due to higher safety requirements for precious metals futures at the Chicago exchange. Gold gained 1%, silver 3-4%. Market commentary views the correction as healthy and necessary – the market had "overheated."

Carsten Brzeski: "The Bear" as Metaphor for Global Economy 2026

Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro Research at ING, uses the American series "The Bear" as a metaphor: In the kitchen, there is chaos, stress, and panic – but in front of guests, a respectable Michelin-star meal is served at the end. The same in 2026: Geopolitical shifts, trade conflicts, and recession fears dominate the scene, but in the base scenario, the global economy remains stable and delivers a "good dish."

USA: Stable Growth Despite K-Shaped Economy

The USA grew 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025. But the reality is divided: A "K-shaped economy" means that 20% of the American population accounts for 80% of consumption. The labor market is cooling, the private sector is barely creating new jobs. Donald Trump will distribute economic stimulus checks (so-called "tariff rebates") to support the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. This should lead to around 2% GDP growth from mid-year onwards.

Fed Succession: Less Dramatic Than Feared

Jerome Powell steps down in May. Kevin Hassett or Kevin Walsh could succeed him – both close to Trump. Brzeski warns against hysteria: Powell was also appointed by Trump and has proven independent. Powell will carry out two more rate cuts (first half of the year), then no more. Tariffs and inflation leave little room for further easing.

Stop-and-Go Inflation: Shorter, More Severe Cycles

In 2026, Brzeski expects a "stop-and-go inflation": Governments drive demand through stimulus programs, but meet tight supply (skilled labor shortages, material costs). This leads to faster, more severe inflation spurts. Inflation could temporarily fall, but will increase again from mid-year.

Quantitative Easing Could Return

Because of "fiscal dominance" (rising government debt in USA, Europe, Germany, Great Britain, Japan), central banks might be forced to restart bond purchase programs in 2026. This prevents capital market interest rates from rising too steeply and would support the market.

Gold: Little Room at the Top

After the record year 2025 (over $4,500/ounce), Brzeski sees only "a few percentage points" of upside for gold in 2026. Reason: In the base scenario, the global economy remains stable, uncertainty does not increase. Silver could still gain 10%, driven by China's tightened export controls.

Germany: The Ketchup Bottle Effect

Brzeski explains Germany's 2025 stagnation with the "ketchup bottle effect": You shake it (allocate funds), nothing comes out (federal system, political delays). Then "pop" – it shoots out. The Bundestag passed nearly 30 military spending contracts at the end of 2025 and approved the 2026 budget. From 2026, investments in infrastructure and defense should flow and bring growth back. However: Structural problems (competitiveness vs. China) remain.

Key Takeaways

• The DAX started 2026 moderately (+0.3-0.4%), real statements only possible at higher trading volumes
• Asian markets, especially Hong Kong, benefited from AI boom and Chinese tech hopes
• Defense stocks show volatile, sentiment-dependent price swings despite stable order books
• Chip sector shines with double-digit gains; investments in Germany signal confidence boost
• Precious metals corrected after extreme 2025 surge; gold has limited further upside potential
• Brzeski expects 2026 stable global economy despite geopolitical risks – "The Bear" metaphor: chaos in the kitchen, good food for guests
• USA: K-shaped economy, Trump will distribute stimulus checks, GDP growth back to ~2% from mid-year
• Fed succession of Powell: Less dramatic than feared, further rate cuts unlikely due to tariffs and inflation
• "Stop-and-Go Inflation": Shorter, more severe inflation cycles due to stimulus programs + tight supply side
• Quantitative easing could return to manage rising government debt
• Germany experiences 2026 "ketchup bottle effect": After delays, investments in infrastructure and defense then flow, should bring growth back
• Structural problems (competitiveness vs. China) remain despite growth prospects

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