Summary

At the start of 2026, Handelsblatt Today analyzes the first market movements and global economic trends. The DAX starts moderately with gains of 0.3-0.4%, while Asian markets such as the Hang Seng with Chinese tech stocks post significant gains. Carsten Brzeski, Global Head of Macro Research at ING, describes the global economy in 2026 using culinary metaphors: Despite geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts, he expects markets to continue performing well and the real economy to benefit from AI investments.

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Topics

  • Stock market start 2026
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI)
  • Geopolitical risks
  • Monetary policy and central banks
  • Inflation and deflation
  • German economy

Detailed Summary

Market Start 2026: Moderate and Cautious

The new stock market year starts cautiously. The DAX climbs 0.8% at the start of trading but quickly loses these gains, ending the report only 0.3-0.4% in the plus. US markets show somewhat more strength: The S&P 500 rises 0.5%, while the Nasdaq 100 gains over 1% more noticeably. However, moderator Andreas Neuhaus warns against over-interpretation, as many investors are still on vacation and trading volume is low. The real stock market year is likely to begin on Monday.

Asia is performing particularly well. The Hang Seng index rises by almost 3%, driven by Chinese tech stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba, which each gain over 4%. Particularly spectacular: AI chip developer Shanghai Byron Technology doubles its price at its IPO. This shows that investors have high hopes for China's tech and AI ambitions.

Sector Trends: Defense, Chips, and Precious Metals

Defense stocks benefit once again from negative developments: Hensoldt rises by nearly 3%, Rheinmetall by 0.5%. Neuhaus criticizes this mechanism as morally questionable and not fundamentally justified – order books are full regardless of the Ukraine war, as Western countries are massively investing in defense.

In the chip sector, upward trends dominate. iXtron jumps over 10%, SÜSS MicroTec gains 6%. The latter increase is supported by the announcement of a 45 million euro development center in Germany, which is part of an innovation initiative.

Precious metals stabilize after massive price movements. Gold and silver fall significantly at the beginning of the week, likely due to profit-taking after phenomenal rallies in the previous year (gold double to single-digit percentage gains, silver triple-digit gains). Additionally, higher security requirements at the Chicago exchange led to sales. On Friday, gold stabilizes with +1%, silver with +3-4%. Market commentators view this correction as healthy, not concerning.

Carsten Brzeski: Global Economic Forecast for 2026

Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING for Germany and Austria, uses the metaphor of the TV series "The Bear" in his annual outlook: Behind the scenes there is chaos – pots flying, stress and panic – but in the end a decent meal is served to guests. Similarly with the global economy: Despite geopolitical shifts, recessions in Germany, and trade tensions, the global economy did not collapse in 2025 as feared.

Base Scenario for 2026:

The decoupling between geopolitics and economics continues. Despite the Ukraine war, Taiwan risks, and USA-China trade conflicts, the global economy remains relatively unscathed. The AI boom overlays many risks and drives markets. Governments counter with stimulus programs: Trump plans $1,000-2,000 checks for low and middle-income households; Germany is putting together a large investment package for infrastructure and defense.

AI Bubble:

Brzeski focuses on the real economy rather than stock valuations. In 2026, AI investments will continue – not just in the USA, but also in Europe. Companies must invest and integrate AI into their processes. This will be an important growth driver. Whether valuations on the stock exchanges are justified, Brzeski does not dare to predict.

USA: K-Shaped Economy and Labor Market Cooling

The US economy shows signs of slowdown: The labor market has cooled significantly by the end of 2025. In the private sector, hardly any new jobs are being created; new positions were created mainly in the public sector, which is complicated by the government shutdown.

Brzeski identifies a K-shaped economy: Only 20% of the American population drives consumption, while 80% of consumers are reducing their spending due to rising prices. The US economy runs on consumption – this division remains in 2026.

Trump and the Midterm Elections:

Trump wants to maintain a majority in Congress to prevent an impeachment proceeding in the second half of his term. Therefore, he will implement stimulus programs. The so-called "tariff rebate" – the passing on of tariff revenues to households – should bring checks in the first half of 2026. After an expected growth dip (late 2025/early 2026), this should lead to growth of around 2%.

Fed Succession:

Jerome Powell steps down in May 2026. Two names are under discussion: Kevin Hassett and Kevin Walsh – both are close to Trump. However, Brzeski allays concerns about Fed independence: Powell himself was appointed by Trump and is now its guardian. Whoever the successor is – pressure from the White House is likely to remain limited. Inflation from tariffs will leave little room for further rate cuts. Powell will likely carry out the last cuts; his successor probably won't cut further in 2026.

Stop-and-Go Inflation

Brzeski expects shorter but more intense inflation cycles. Reason: Governments fuel the economy with stimulus programs that meet a tight supply side (labor market, material costs). Quick demand surges lead to faster bottlenecks – shortage of skilled workers, material scarcity. Inflation should fall slightly in the coming months but pick up significantly again by mid-year/second half. This pattern – stop-and-go – differs from earlier, drawn-out inflation cycles.

Quantitative Easing as a Possible Scenario

Fiscal dominance characterizes the Western world. USA, Europe, Germany, Great Britain, Japan – all governments face the same challenge: They need to invest more (demographic change, pensions, healthcare) but have less money. Government debt continues to rise.

If the market punishes rising government debt with higher interest rates, central banks could be forced to start bond purchase programs (QE) again. This could come back sooner than many think – even though central banks thought after the pandemic they would never see QE again. Whether under political pressure (USA) or to support their own monetary policy (Europe) – the logic points to it.

Precious Metals: Limited Room

Gold: The price could rise by a few percentage points in 2026, but room is limited. Reason: In the base scenario, the global economy continues to grow, uncertainty remains but does not get worse. A lot of money is already invested in gold. A new record high of over $4,500 per fine ounce in the previous year shows its strength, but there is limited upside.

Silver: China tightened export controls at the year-end. ING commodity experts expect an increase of about 10% over the course of the year, starting from the fourth quarter of 2025.

Germany: The Ketchup Bottle Neck Effect

Brzeski uses another culinary metaphor for Germany: Ketchup Bottle Effect. You shake – nothing comes out. You tap on it – still nothing. Then suddenly – plop! – it shoots out, usually too much at once.

In 2025, many asked: Where is the money? Where are the investments? The answer lies in Germany's federal system and political processes. The Bundestag only passes the 2026 budget at the end of 2025, shortly after approving nearly 30 contracts for military spending. This is hard for foreign observers to understand – but it is reality.

Brzeski warns against too much pessimism. The ketchup will flow – Germany will grow again after it had settled "comfortably" into stagnation/mini-recession. This is better than the "national depression" at year-end 2025.

But: Structural problems remain. Even with infrastructure and distribution investments, Germany will not immediately become competitive with China. Long-term reforms are needed. Short to medium term, however, the ketchup means at least growth again.

Key Takeaways

  • The stock market start of 2026 is moderate; real momentum should set in next week with higher trading volume.

  • Asian tech markets, particularly Chinese AI stocks, show strength – investors are betting on the tech arms race.

  • Defense stocks benefit from geopolitical uncertainties, but Brzeski criticizes this mechanism as morally questionable and not fundamentally justified.

  • Chip sector is strong, driven by AI investments and geopolitical diversification (e.g., SÜSS MicroTec in Germany).

  • Precious metals stabilize after profit-taking; gold has little upside, silver benefits from Chinese export controls.

  • Global economy 2026: Decoupling between geopolitics and economics continues; AI boom overlays risks; governments counter with stimulus programs.

  • USA: K-shaped economy (only 20% drive consumption), labor market cools, but Trump will distribute checks. Growth expected ~2% after dip.

  • Fed succession: Independence remains assured; little room for further rate cuts due to inflation from tariffs.

  • Stop-and-Go Inflation: Shorter, more intense cycles expected – inflation falls initially but picks up significantly mid-year.

  • Quantitative Easing: Central banks could restart bond purchase programs in 2026.