Executive Summary

The Swiss Federal Council adopted the report "Perspectives Switzerland 2040" on 19 June 2026. The document develops three scenarios for possible global developments until 2040 and their impacts on Switzerland. From this scenario analysis, the report derives six overarching fields of action. The Federal Chancellery prepared the report with the participation of experts from administration and science. The report is intended to serve as a basis for legislative planning 2027–2031 and the review of sectoral strategies.

Persons

  • Federal Council (collective body; decision-maker)

Topics

  • Strategic foresight
  • Scenario planning
  • Legislative planning 2027–2031
  • Federal administration

Clarus Lead

The report addresses central uncertainties of the coming years: economic volatility, geopolitical polarization, technological disruption, and climate change. The transversal structure deliberately differs from sectoral individual strategies and enables the federal administration to review its existing measures for coherence. With its anchoring in Article 32c of the RVOG, foresight receives an institutional framework for the coming legislative period.

Detailed Summary

The scenario space encompasses three different development paths that map ranges from economic stagnation to boom, from critical to stable security situations, from climate indifference to active climate protection, and from multipolar to unipolar world order. The report emphasizes that these scenarios are neither ideal images nor probability forecasts, but deliberately contain elements that can be evaluated positively and negatively. This makes it possible to explore various dimensions of social, technological, economic, ecological, and political developments.

In addition to the scenarios, the report identifies extreme influences – sudden, crisis-like events that can overlay or dominate any scenario trajectory. The six derived fields of action are: Social Cohesion, Technology and Knowledge Hub Switzerland, Economic Prosperity, Climate and Ecosystems, Switzerland in the World, and Security and Defence. These fields form the basis for proactive and sustainable management of upcoming challenges.

Key Statements

  • The report uses scenario planning to systematically map future uncertainties rather than functioning as a probability forecast
  • Six overarching fields of action are to ensure coherence between sectoral strategies of the federal administration
  • The transversal perspective complements existing strategic instruments and serves legislative planning 2027–2031

Critical Questions

  1. Evidence: On which data sources and expertise are the three scenarios concretely based? Which scientific methods were used for scenario construction?

  2. Conflicts of Interest: To what extent can experts from the federal administration develop scenarios independently of particular interests of their departments?

  3. Causality: How are interactions between the six fields of action depicted? Can measures in one field trigger target conflicts in other fields?

  4. Feasibility: What binding force do the derived fields of action have for departments in legislative planning? Are there sanction mechanisms for non-compliance?

  5. Extreme Influences: According to which criteria are "extreme influences" identified and prioritized? How are pandemics, financial crises, or cyberattacks systematically taken into account?

  6. Transparency: To what extent are the scenarios and fields of action publicly debated, or do they remain planning instruments of the executive?

Source Directory

Primary Source: Perspectives Switzerland 2040 – Federal Council Report – https://www.bk.admin.ch/de/perspektiven-schweiz-2040

Verification Status: ✓ 19.06.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: 19.06.2026