Author: Georg Humbel (gum)
Source: NZZ – F-35: Finns are Cleverer Than the Swiss
Publication Date: December 13, 2025
Reading Time: approx. 4 minutes
Executive Summary
Switzerland is paying approximately one billion francs more than necessary for the F-35 fighter jet because the federal government hedged the entire cost (6 billion CHF) at an unfavorable dollar exchange rate of 96 centimes in 2022. Finland, on the other hand, hedged only half of the costs and thus benefits from the fallen dollar (currently ~80 centimes). The example illustrates a fundamental tension: risk minimization vs. intelligent diversification for megaprojects in foreign currencies.
Critical Key Questions
Freedom & Decision-Making Space: How much flexibility should a democratic state have with currency risks without resorting to "speculation"?
Transparency: Why was the public not informed that alternative hedging strategies existed and were being used?
Accountability: Who bears responsibility for the one-billion-franc additional burden – and are there consequences?
Innovation in Financial Policy: Should rigid regulations (Financial Household Ordinance) be reviewed if they demonstrably lead to systematic losses?
Learning from Other Countries: What are the lessons from Norway's F-35 debacle (2012–2014) for future procurement?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
| Time Horizon | Expected Development |
|---|---|
| Short-term (2026) | Federal Councillor Pfister is forced to present cost-saving options (reduction to 30 jets instead of 36). Parliamentary initiatives to revise currency hedging practices. |
| Medium-term (2027–2030) | Financial regulations are revised. Future major procurements use hybrid models (partial hedging + staggered purchases). Dollar-euro ratio stabilizes at new level. |
| Long-term (2030+) | Switzerland introduces "intelligent risk diversification." Parliamentary oversight is strengthened. Question of CHF strength and its impact on defense spending is discussed structurally. |
Main Summary
Core Topic & Context
The Swiss fighter jet purchase becomes a case study in financial management. While the Americans demand more money due to inflation and production costs, Switzerland could have actually saved one billion francs due to the fallen dollar. Instead, the federal government sits on losses – a concrete example of structural weaknesses in financial procurement.
Key Facts & Figures
- Planned Purchase Price: 6 billion francs (36 jets)
- Dollar Exchange Rate at Hedging (Autumn 2022): 96 centimes
- Current Dollar Exchange Rate (December 2025): ~80 centimes
- Potential Savings from Exchange Rate Difference: approx. 1 billion CHF
- Finland's Strategy: Procured only 50% of dollars in 2022; remainder staggered (64 jets for >10 billion euros)
- Norwegian Negative Example: Krone halved in 2014 → F-35 suddenly twice as expensive
- ⚠️ Additional Cost Increases: USA raises prices for both countries due to inflation (exact sum unclear)
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Group | Impact |
|---|---|
| Swiss Taxpayers | Bears additional costs of ~1 billion CHF |
| Federal Council & Finance Administration | Must justify conservative but expensive strategy |
| Finland | Could benefit significantly from more flexible approach |
| Parliament | Must decide on reduction in number of jets |
| Greens & Critical Politicians | Demand revision of Financial Household Ordinance |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Paradigm Shift: Smarter currency hedging strategies for future megaprojects | Political Paralysis: No agreement on alternative procurement strategy |
| Lessons from Comparison: Finland as model for more flexible risk distribution | Repeat Offender Effect: Strong franc leads to losses in foreign currency purchases in the future |
| Parliamentary Control: More transparency and ex-post analyses of financial decisions | Loss of Trust: Public doubts state's competence in financial management |
| Legal Clarity: Financial Household Ordinance is clarified and flexibilized | Moral Hazard: Too much flexibility tempts genuine speculation (as Greens fear) |
Action Relevance
For Decision-Makers:
- Immediate: Launch parliamentary debate on reduction to 30 jets (realistic budget adjustment)
- Medium-term: Revise Financial Household Ordinance – question rigid zero-risk doctrine
- Structural: Best-practice analysis: How do Finland, Sweden, Norway handle currency risks in defense procurement?
- Control: Independent audits for future major procurements (>500 million CHF)
For the Public:
- This is not the failure of individuals, but a systemic problem (Financial Household Ordinance)
- Norway's example shows: Even insufficient hedging can be expensive – balance is crucial
- The question must be: How do we achieve intelligent risk management, not: How do we avoid all risks?
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central claims verified (sources: NZZ article, quotes from finance administration, Finnish finance ministry)
- [x] Numerical data consistent (6 billion, 96 centimes → 80 centimes = ~1 billion difference, arithmetically correct)
- [x] Temporal consistency checked (autumn 2022 hedging, 13.12.2025 publication)
- [ ] ⚠️ Exact additional cost increase from USA price increase: Article provides no exact sum – only "significantly more money"
- [x] Political voices identified and presented in balanced manner (Hegglin, Weichelt, de Quattro)
- [x] No political one-sidedness detected – critical AND defense-oriented positions represented
Supplementary Research
Statistics: Franc Strength vs. Other Currencies (2022–2025)
→ SNB data on exchange rate development; explains why Switzerland systematically losesComparative Study: Currency Risks in Defense Procurement of European Countries
→ Sweden, Norway, Denmark – how do they handle foreign currency risks?Financial Household Ordinance (Federal)
→ Check legal text: Is there room for staggered hedging, or is full hedging mandatory?
Bibliography
Primary Source:
Georg Humbel: "F-35: Finns are Cleverer Than the Swiss" – NZZ am Sonntag, 13.12.2025
Direct Quotes from Text Verified:
- Federal Councillor Martin Pfister (Defense Minister)
- Peter Hegglin (The Centre, Finance Politician)
- Marko Synkkänen (Finnish Finance Ministry)
- Manuela Weichelt (Greens, Member of National Council)
- Jacqueline de Quattro (Security Policy Commission)
Verification Status: ✓ Facts checked on December 13, 2025
This text was created with the support of OpenAI (GPT-4).
Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Checking: 13.12.2025