2026 is the Year of the AfD – Can it Really Govern? A Look at the Economic Program

Summary

The AfD is positioning itself in 2026 as a force for economic change with promises of tax cuts, pension increases, and a return to Russian gas. However, leading economists such as Knut Bergmann from the German Economic Institute (IW) and Marcel Fratzscher from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) describe the program as "economic policy poison" and "contradictory slogans." The party promises massively higher spending while drastically cutting revenues – an equation that simply doesn't add up.

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Detailed Summary

Context and Election Year 2026

The AfD's economic policy spokesman, Leif-Erik Holm, emphasizes in conversations with NZZ am Sonntag his party's central theme: "liberation" through less state, fewer taxes, and less bureaucracy. 2026 is to be a breakthrough year for the AfD – five state elections are scheduled, and polls indicate substantial gains. In Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, the party could climb from under 10 to over 20 percent. Particularly significant are the elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in September, where the AfD is measured at 40 and 38 percent respectively – equivalent to being by far the strongest force. A majority of Germans (53 percent) expect that there will be an AfD minister-president in 2026.

The Promise: Relief in Every Respect

The AfD's emergency program, called the "Germany Plan," promises an "unleashing program" for the economy. Holm makes this concrete: reduction of electricity tax, wage and income tax, and corporate tax. At the same time, pensions are to be raised to 70 percent of income in the long term – compared to the current level of 48 percent. According to the article, the black-red coalition would have almost collapsed over the associated costs of up to 15 billion euros per year.

Criticism: Contradictory Math

Knut Bergmann from the IW calls the program "a collection of economic policy poison." He does admit that individual points could make economic sense, but overall it is "contradictory, inconsistent, and economically harmful." The central criticism: revenues massively down, spending massively up. Bergmann states that this leads on the "fast track toward state bankruptcy."

Marcel Fratzscher, President of the DIW, reaches similar conclusions: the AfD wants to spend more money, massively cut taxes, and maintain the debt brake simultaneously – impossible to finance. Fratzscher characterizes the program not as a genuine concept, but as a "loose collection of contradictory slogans."

Energy Policy: Return to Nuclear Power and Russian Gas

The AfD holds the energy transition responsible for high energy prices and calls it "madness that doesn't work one way or another." The solution: return to nuclear power and Russian gas. Holm argues that Germany is the "energy policy wrong-way driver in Europe" and describes Russian gas as "unbeatable in price." After the war ends, the damaged Nord Stream pipeline is to be repaired.

Bergmann considers this plan "economically as well as geopolitically absurd." Germany cannot become dependent on a warring nation. The DIW warns of billions in investment through reversing the energy transition. Fratzscher speaks of "incompetence or deliberate deception" – portraying renewable energies as inefficient is simply wrong.

Migration: Deterrence Rather Than Integration

The AfD regularly uses slogans like "remigration" for publicity. Experts warn that such anti-migration rhetoric already deters qualified immigrants. Bergmann points out that without immigration in recent years, many eastern German regions would not have experienced employment growth. Fratzscher criticizes that AfD economic policy "destroys the pillars of success – openness, industry, and the Mittelstand." The Munich Ifo Institute warns of a "policy of isolation" that "could set prosperity back by decades."

EU Exit: Economic Catastrophe

Holm rejects the "EU in its current form" and calls for a return to a European economic community. However, Bergmann argues that EU exit would be the logical consequence – and that is "economic madness." According to IW calculations, this step would cost 690 billion euros in economic output and destroy up to 2.5 million jobs.

Fratzscher calls the "Dexit" an "economic catastrophe" that would destroy supply chains, cause exports to collapse, and drive Germany toward deindustrialization. A recent IW study shows that nearly 70 percent of German exports go to European trading partners – Europe's importance has further increased under Trump's tariffs and strained China relations.

Tax Policy: Paradoxical Justice

The AfD presents itself as the party of hardworking "ordinary people," yet Bergmann shows that the tax plans actually benefit the wealthy: abolition of inheritance tax, reduction of corporate tax, and relief for top earners. Fratzscher calls this the "AfD paradox": a party that claims to fight for the disadvantaged while it "distributes the biggest gifts to the rich and big business."

Key Findings

• The AfD promises an "unleashing" of the economy through tax cuts, pension increases, and deregulation, yet leading economists consider the program impossible to finance and economically harmful.

• The central problem: massively declining revenues combined with massively rising spending lead directly to state bankruptcy scenarios, according to Bergmann and Fratzscher.

• The planned return to Russian gas and nuclear power is criticized as geopolitically absurd and expensive; renewable energies are not inefficient but central to competitiveness.

• The AfD's anti-migration rhetoric already deters qualified skilled workers who are particularly necessary for economic growth in eastern Germany.

• According to calculations, an EU exit would cost 690 billion euros in economic output and destroy up to 2.5 million jobs – European markets are central to 70 percent of German exports.

• The AfD's tax plans actually favor the wealthy and big business, not the "ordinary people" the party claims to represent.

• Experts characterize the AfD's economic program as a "collection of contradictory slogans" without genuine realistic financing or economic consistency.

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