Publication date: 21.11.2025
Author: Eric Gujer (NZZ)
Source: NZZ.ch
Publication date: 21.11.2025
Summary reading time: 4-5 minutes
Executive Summary
Switzerland had to submit to Trump's demands in an opaque "tariff deal" and thereby abandon its traditional rules-based foreign policy. The commentator warns of the new "world disorder" in which great powers impose their interests through economic coercion, while small states are pressured into making "endeavor commitments" and tribute payments. Paradoxically, the criticized EU, despite its power asymmetry, offers more legal certainty and predictable procedures than arbitrary haggling with Washington.
Critical Key Questions
How far can a small state maintain its sovereignty when the rules-based world order is replaced by power politics?
Is Swiss neutrality still more than a "threadbare cloak" when sanctions are simultaneously adopted and tribute payments made?
What long-term consequences arise for democracy when international relations are degraded from rule of law to "oriental bazaar"?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
Short-term (1 year):
Further extortion attempts by Trump with new demands regarding sanctions and trade balance compensation. Political pressure on Switzerland to accept the EU treaty package as the "lesser evil."
Medium-term (5 years):
Erosion of Swiss foreign policy tradition. Small states adapt to the new "tribute logic." EU could harden its position toward Switzerland but continue to offer rule-of-law procedures.
Long-term (10-20 years):
Complete transformation of the international order toward regional spheres of influence. Switzerland will have to choose between EU integration and US dependence, as true neutrality becomes impossible.
Main Summary
Core Theme & Context
Switzerland exemplifies the end of the rules-based international order. After Federal President Keller-Sutter's failed first attempt, Federal Councilor Parmelin (SVP) had to submit to Trump's arbitrary tariff threats and sign a vague "declaration of intent" that more closely resembles an extortion contract.
Most Important Facts & Figures
- 39% tariff threat from Trump originally, 15% final "compromise"
- Tribute character: Switzerland delivered expensive watches and gold bars to Washington
- Vague commitments: Investments, trade balance compensation and sanctions adoption without binding nature
- Power relations: Switzerland economically extremely dependent on USA and EU
- Neutrality erosion: Switzerland has already adopted multiple Russia sanctions
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
- Swiss export industry (especially watches, pharma, machinery)
- SVP as "sovereignty party" paradoxically leading the submission
- EU as alternative with structured legal procedures
- Small states worldwide as those affected by the new power politics
Opportunities & Risks
Risks:
- Further extortion by Trump ("Whoever pays once will do so again next time")
- Loss of foreign policy predictability and legal certainty
- International precedent effect for other small states
Opportunities:
- EU treaties offer more legal certainty than US arbitrariness
- Arbitration procedures instead of "oriental bazaar"
- Possibility for informed decision-making with known rules of the game
Action Relevance
Strategic reorientation required: Switzerland must abandon the illusion of absolute sovereignty and choose between different forms of constraint. The EU offers rule-of-law procedures and predictability despite power asymmetry, while the USA practices pure power politics.
Supplementary Perspectives
The article reflects a fundamentally changed geopolitical reality in which the "liberal world order" of the last 30 years is collapsing. For leaders, this means: planning horizons are shortening, international agreements become more uncertain, and diversification strategies gain importance.
Bibliography
Primary source:
Erst die EU und jetzt Trump: Jeder will der Schweiz seine Bedingungen diktieren
Verification status: ✅ Analysis based on NZZ commentary from 21.11.2025