Author: Eflamm Mordrelle | Source: NZZ.ch
Publication Date: 31.10.2025 | Summary Reading Time: 3 minutes
Executive Summary
Nvidia has become the first company to reach a market capitalization of $5 trillion - driven by blind AI optimism. Even OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warns of an AI bubble similar to the dotcom crash. The extreme concentration on a few US tech stocks creates significant cluster risk for investors, a stock market correction is considered overdue.
Core Topic & Context
Stock markets are reaching new highs, exclusively supported by belief in AI promises. Despite high valuations and an unstable global situation, enthusiasm for artificial intelligence remains unbroken. This development strongly resembles historical bubble formations.
Key Facts & Figures
• Nvidia valuation: Breakthrough of the $5 trillion threshold achieved
• Record growth: From $1 trillion (June 2023) to $5 trillion in just 16 months
• Size comparison: Nvidia alone more valuable than the stock exchanges of Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, and Canada combined
• Market concentration: The 7 largest US tech stocks already make up one-third of the S&P 500
• Lead: $1 trillion valuation advantage over Microsoft and Apple
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
Main affected parties: Investors worldwide, especially Swiss savers with Pillar 3a products and global equity portfolios. Involved industries: Chip industry (Nvidia, AMD), AI development (OpenAI, Oracle), cloud computing (Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet).
Opportunities & Risks
Risks: • "Greater fool theory" - buying overpriced stocks hoping for even higher prices • Capital destruction if AI expectations are not met (warning from hedge fund billionaire David Einhorn) • Unclear monetization of billion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure • Possible Deepseek moments - cheaper alternatives could shake valuations
Historical parallels: Similar concentration phases ("Nifty Fifty" 1960s/70s, dotcom bubble 1990s) were precursors to weak stock market phases.
Action Relevance
For portfolio managers: The growing cluster risk from US tech dominance requires diversification strategies. Time-critical: A correction for weight reduction is considered desirable, but the timing remains unpredictable.
Bibliography
Primary source: • Selbst Sam Altman spricht von einer KI-Blase: An der Börse ist eine Korrektur fällig - NZZ.ch
Additional sources: • Nvidia erreicht als erste Firma die 5-Billionen-Dollar-Bewertung - NZZ.ch • Keine Blase bei KI, aber 'rationaler Überschwang' - NZZ.ch • OpenAI gelingt die Neustrukturierung - NZZ.ch
Verification status: ✅ Facts checked on 31.10.2025