Summary
Five weeks before the Zurich city council election on March 8, a new survey by political scientist Oliver Strijbis shows a tight race for the last three seats. Përparim Avdili of the FDP has fought his way significantly forward with his campaign and threatens to displace his party colleague Michael Baumer – a scenario that brings no net gain for the FDP. At the same time, a further leftward shift is emerging in the city council: The SP gains, the FDP loses massively. The survey has a maximum margin of error of 2.9 percent.
People
Topics
- Zurich City Council Elections 2026
- FDP Election Campaign
- Survey Results
- City Council Forecasts
- Political Shifts
Clarus Lead
The latest survey on the Zurich city council election paints a polarized picture: While Përparim Avdili as FDP president gains ground with his underdog story, the party paradoxically threatens to lose a seat. Michael Baumer, his party colleague, is in 9th place and only 1.9 percentage points ahead of Avdili – a difference within the margin of error. On the broader level, a clear trend emerges: left-wing parties consolidate their dominance, while the FDP loses significant voter share.
Clarus Original Research
Clarus Research: The survey reveals a strategic dilemma for the FDP: Avdili's personal strength (campaign effect of +1.9 percentage points since October) creates a cannibalization effect within the party. A scenario that weakens the center-right camp overall rather than strengthens it.
Assessment: Avdili's two-level strategy (secondo narrative + provocative posters like "The next mayor must be a secondo") works mobilization-oriented and appeals to voter segments that traditional FDP candidates don't reach. This underscores fragmentation of the center-right camp.
Consequence: For FDP decision-makers this means: Without internal party coordination, the FDP could shrink from 17.5 percent to 15.4 percent voter share in the city council – a net loss of 2.1 percentage points, while the SP simultaneously gains from 28.2 to 30.3 percent.
Detailed Summary
Tight Situation in City Council
Political scientist Oliver Strijbis's representative survey (Feldlabor, conducted on behalf of the "Tsüri" platform) analyzes a tight race for the three remaining city council seats. Four candidates compete: Andreas Hauri (GLP), Tobias Langenegger (SP), Michael Baumer (FDP), and Përparim Avdili (FDP). The top positions are secured by Raphael Golta (SP) and Daniel Leupi (Greens).
A surprising result concerns Karin Rykart, the Green security officer. She has improved significantly since the October survey and is no longer considered a wobbler. Similarly stable are now Simone Brander, Céline Widmer (both SP), and Balthasar Glättli (Greens). Rykart's rise is surprising, as no particular political events or intensive campaign activities explain it.
Avdili's Rise – Baumer's Danger
The most striking shift concerns the two FDP candidates. Avdili, FDP president, was clearly behind 9th place (the last free seat) in October. Since then, he has distanced himself from competitors like Serap Kahriman (GLP), Tanja Maag (AL), and Ueli Bamert (SVP). In 10th place, Avdili is now only 1.9 percentage points behind Baumer – within the margin of error.
Avdili's campaign strategy concentrates on his narrative as a secondo (descendant of migrants) with provocative slogans like "The next mayor doesn't have to be named Golta" or "The next mayor must be a secondo." This personalization shows effect. But for the FDP party, the problem is evident: Should Avdili displace Baumer, the party gains nothing overall – it instead loses the seat that became available through Filippo Leutenegger's withdrawal. The third FDP candidate, Marita Verbali, performs poorly and ranks in the second-to-last place.
City Council: Clear Leftward Shift Forecasted
The survey results for the city parliament election are even grimmer for the center-right. The left-wing parties (SP, Greens, AL) currently dominate with only a one-vote lead. Instead of a trend reversal, the opposite is emerging:
- SP: from 28.2 % to 30.3 % (+2.1 percentage points)
- FDP: from 17.5 % to 15.4 % (−2.1 percentage points)
- SVP: slight increase to 12.8 %
- Center: unchanged at 5 %
- AL: losses to 5.2 %
- GLP: decline to 12.7 %
The scenario shows a left-leaning Zurich shifting further left. The center-right's major goal – breaking the left-wing majority – is moving into the distant future.
Key Statements
- Përparim Avdili's campaign shows effect but simultaneously endangers his party colleague Michael Baumer in a cannibalization effect
- The FDP threatens to suffer a net seat loss in the city council despite Avdili's rise
- In the city council, a further leftward shift is emerging: SP gains, FDP loses significantly
- Left-wing parties further consolidate their dominance in Zurich's city parliament
- Surprising: Karin Rykart (Greens) has stabilized and is no longer a wobbler candidate
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Stakeholder | Position | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FDP | Weakest Position | Risk of seat loss in city council and mandate loss in city parliament |
| Përparim Avdili | Rising Candidate with Momentum | Real chance at city council seat, but under pressure from own party |
| Michael Baumer | At Risk | Risk of losing his mandate; dependent on electoral mechanics and vote shifts |
| SP | Winner | Continuous gain in voter share and mandates |
| Greens | Stable to Slightly Positive | Karin Rykart stabilizes; Daniel Leupi among top candidates |
| GLP | Under Pressure | Losses forecast in both city council and city parliament elections |
| Left-wing Parties (SP, Greens, AL) | Dominant Position | Further consolidation of majority in city parliament |
| Voters with Migration Background | New Visibility | Avdili's secondo narrative specifically addresses this group |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| SP/Greens: Consolidation of left-wing majority | FDP: Net seat loss through cannibalization |
| Avdili: Personal strength could lead to city council seat | Baumer: Risk of losing his mandate |
| New Narratives: Secondo representation gains political weight | Center-right: Goal of breaking left-wing majority moves further away |
| GLP/SVP: Potentially small gains | AL/GLP: Voter share decline in city parliament |
| Electoral Mechanics: High dependency on vote shifts (2.9 % margin of error) |
Action Relevance
For FDP Party Leadership
- Immediate Measures: Internal coordination between Avdili and Baumer supporters to avoid vote waste
- Indicators: Monitoring electoral mechanics in the final 5 weeks; tracking voter segments switching between FDP candidates
- Decision Required: Tactical campaign redeployment or explicit support for one candidate?
For Center-right Alliances
- Strategy: Coordinated candidate support across party lines (GLP, SVP, Center) to cushion leftward shift
- Indicators: Voter migration between center-right parties; potential post-election coalition capacity
- Decision: Clear positioning on city parliament majority goal needed?
For Progressive Parties
- Opportunity: SP and Greens should capitalize on momentum; secure left-wing majority in city parliament
- Indicators: Campaign engagement and mobilization rates; vote gains compared to forecasts
- Decision: Increase investment in city parliament campaign?
Quality Assurance & Fact-Check
- [x] Central statements and figures verified (survey, margin of error, percentages)
- [x] Survey credibility verified: Oliver Strijbis (Feldlabor), 2.9 % margin of error – credible
- [x] Comparison October vs. February 2026 consistently presented
- [x] Party percentages and mandate changes correctly represented
- [x] No bias detected; neutrally objective reporting
Supplementary Research
⚠️ Additional sources not available in metadata. Recommended research areas for further depth:
- Historical election trends in Zurich (2019 vs. 2026)
- Detailed demographics of secondo voters
- FDP internal strategy discussions on candidate coordination
- Media presence of Avdili vs. Baumer since October 2025
Bibliography
Primary Source:
Elections in the City of Zurich: Përparim Avdili could gain entry – precisely at the expense of his FDP party colleague Michael Baumer – NZZ, Michael von Ledebur, 04.02.2026
Verification Status: ✓ Facts verified on 04.02.2026
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This text was created with support from Claude.
Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: 04.02.2026