Executive Summary

Switzerland had over 9.1 million inhabitants on December 31, 2025, and recorded population growth of 0.8 percent compared to the previous year. For the first time, the number of people over 65 years old (1.811 million) exceeds that of those under 20 years old (1.802 million). Birth rates declined for the fourth consecutive year, while the international migration balance was declining. These provisional results come from the Federal Statistical Office (BFS).

Persons

  • Federal Statistical Office (Swiss Statistical Authority)

Topics

  • Demographic aging
  • Population growth
  • Birth rates
  • Migration and migration balance
  • Life expectancy

Clarus Lead

The aging of the Swiss population marks a structural turning point with significant consequences for pensions, healthcare, and employment rates. The old-age dependency ratio (32.9 seniors per 100 working-age persons) is approaching the youth dependency ratio (32.7) – a trend that has continuously intensified since 2005. At the same time, the fourth consecutive decline in births is slowing natural population growth, while immigration is weaker than in the previous year.

Detailed Summary

Switzerland's population growth slowed to +73,300 persons (+0.8%) in 2025 – significantly below the previous year's value of +1.0 percent. Regional differences were evident: Schaffhausen (+1.6%), Basel-Stadt (+1.4%), and Valais (+1.3%) recorded the strongest growth, while Glarus and Ticino (+0.2%) as well as Bern, Jura, and Neuchâtel (+0.4%) grew minimally.

The number of births fell to 77,900 live births in 2025 (–0.5% compared to 2024), with the rate of decline slowing significantly compared to previous years (2024: –2.2%; 2023: –2.8%). The average number of children per woman fell from 1.29 to 1.28. Deaths declined slightly (71,700 cases, –0.3%), with 89 percent affecting persons aged 65 and over. Life expectancy rose marginally: women to 86.3 years (+0.4), men to 82.7 years (+0.3).

Immigration fell by 3.8 percent to 204,600 persons, while emigration fell by 1.9 percent to 127,300. The migration balance decreased from 82,800 (2024) to 77,300 (2025). Foreign nationals grew faster (+1.9%) than Swiss nationals (+0.4%), supported by 41,500 naturalizations. Marriages declined by 2.8 percent (35,700), divorces by 2.7 percent (15,700); if current trends continue, 38.8 percent of marriages could be divorced in the future.

Key Messages

  • For the first time, seniors (65+) exceed youth (<20) in Switzerland – a structural turning point in the population pyramid
  • Birth numbers decline for the fourth consecutive year, but at a slowing pace – an indication of stabilization
  • Immigration weakens (–3.8%), while natural growth is dampened by low birth rates
  • Employment rate under pressure: old-age dependency ratio approaches youth dependency ratio and rises structurally

Critical Questions

  1. Data Quality: How robust are the BFS's provisional figures for 2025, and what revisions should be expected in the final results (June/August 2026)?

  2. Migration Effects: To what extent does immigration of foreign workers compensate for the decline in births, and how sustainable is this strategy without integration planning?

  3. Causality of Birth Decline: Are declining birth numbers primarily a result of economic uncertainty, changing lifestyles, or structural childcare gaps – and which hypothesis is supported by cantonal differences?

  4. Pension System Sustainability: With an old-age dependency ratio of 32.9 – how long will the pay-as-you-go system remain financially viable without reforms, and what threshold values is the government planning?

  5. Regional Divergence: Why is Schaffhausen (+1.6%) and Basel-Stadt (+1.4%) growing significantly faster than Ticino (+0.2%) – is it immigration, births, or emigration?

  6. Divorce Rate Forecast: The assumption that 38.8% of marriages will be divorced is based on 2025 trends – how stable is this extrapolation, and which sociodemographic factors are driving it?

Source Directory

Primary Source: Demographic aging continues to increase in Switzerland – news.admin.ch/de (02.04.2026)

Supplementary Sources:

  1. Federal Statistical Office (BFS) – Population and Household Statistics 2025
  2. Ordinance of December 19, 2008 on the Federal Census (SR 431.112.1)

Verification Status: ✓ 02.04.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Checking: 02.04.2026