Swiss Industry Under Pressure: Tariff Deal Provides No Security

Author: Benjamin Triebe, Neue Zürcher Zeitung
Source: NZZ – Swiss Industry and USA Tariff Agreement
Publication Date: 19.12.2025
Reading Time: approx. 5 minutes

Executive Summary

Despite the reduction of US import tariffs from 39 to 15 percent, Swiss industry remains fundamentally threatened. Three leading companies (Schweiter, Huber + Suhner, Cicor) simultaneously warned of profit declines – a signal of massive structural problems. Success depends on three uncertain factors: the volatility of the Trump administration, franc strength, and economic recovery in Germany. Without this stabilization, 2026 threatens further job cuts and stagnant investments.

Critical Leading Questions

1. Freedom & Market Distortion: How sustainable is a tariff deal under an unpredictable administration? Does the reduction from 39% to 15% really protect, or does it only create false security?

2. Responsibility & Exchange Rate: Who bears responsibility for franc strength – the National Bank through its monetary policy or external factors? Can companies compensate for this?

3. Transparency & Forecasting Ability: Why did three profit warnings surprise the market simultaneously? Was early detection lacking, or is volatility structurally unpredictable?

4. Innovation & Investments: How should SMEs invest in new technologies when demand remains uncertain? Does this uncertainty hamper progress?

5. Global Dependency: Is extreme export dependence (USA, EU, China) a strategic risk that should be addressed through diversification?

Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives

Main Summary

Core Topic & Context

Swiss industry received breathing room with the reduced US tariff rate (15% instead of 39%), but no fundamental security. At the same time, profit warnings from Schweiter Technologies (−11% sales), Huber + Suhner (−3% sales), and Cicor (max 620 million instead of 650 million CHF) shook confidence in a rapid recovery. These companies exemplify the export-dependent MEM industry (machinery, electrical, metal industry).

Key Facts & Figures

• US Tariff Reduction: 39% → 15% (December 2025)
• Schweiter: 2025 sales expectations decline by 11% to 900 million CHF
• Huber + Suhner: Sales decline 3% to ~870 million CHF (currency effect)
• Cicor: 2025 sales expectations maximum 620 million CHF (instead of 650 million)
• Job Cuts: −11,000 full-time positions (−1.7%) in manufacturing (Q3 2025)
• SME Situation: 75% of MEM SMEs assess situation as unfavorable; 40% expect declining orders
• Short-time Work: 21% of surveyed MEM SMEs utilize this (increase from 19% at year beginning)
• Franc Forecast: UBS expects USD/CHF ≈ 0.79 in 12 months (marginally weaker)
• EUR/CHF Outlook: UBS forecasts 0.95 CHF/EUR (today: 0.93) – minor relief

⚠️ Uncertain: Timing and scope of German industrial recovery; stability of Trump tariff policy

Stakeholders & Affected Parties

• Winners (potentially): Exporters in less tariff-burdened sectors; EU markets with stable demand
• Losers: SMEs in MEM industry; employees (job cuts, short-time work); suppliers with USD exposure
• Ambivalent: Large corporations (diversified, can absorb losses, but growth limited)
• Regulators: SNB (franc strength), Federal Council (trade protection, industrial policy)

Opportunities & Risks

Action Relevance

For Managers & Decision-Makers:

1. Accelerate Scenario Planning: Play through multiple tariff scenarios; reduce dependence on US policy
2. Review Franc Hedging: Currency volatility will persist in 2026; adjust pricing strategies
3. Prioritize German Markets: Euro zone signals recovery – growth potential lies here
4. SME Support: Improve credit access; use short-time work strategically (not permanently)
5. Labor Market Resilience: Skilled worker security will be difficult – expand training programs
6. Monitor: Track Purchasing Managers' Index weekly (threshold 50 = expansion signal)

Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking

• [x] Central statements (sales declines, job cuts) verified against NZZ text
• [x] Figures on tariff reduction, SME surveys, labor market verified
• [x] UBS currency forecasts documented as source
• [x] Uncertainties (German recovery, Trump stability) marked (⚠️)
• [x] Bias check: Text is neutral-critical; no political one-sidedness detected
• [x] KOF and Barclays forecasts validated as secondary sources

Verification Status: ✓ Facts verified on 19.12.2025

Supplementary Research

1. Swissmem Report (December 2025): MEM industry association – most current SME survey data

2. KOF Economic Barometer (ETH Zurich): Weekly industrial trends, half-year forecasts

3. Purchasing Managers' Index procure.ch (UBS/procure.ch): Real-time industrial signal (target: >50 points)

4. SNB Currency Forecasts: Franc perspectives and monetary policy impacts

Source Index

Primary Source:
Triebe, Benjamin (2025): «Swiss Industry Experiences Nasty Surprises Despite Tariff Deal» – Neue Zürcher Zeitung, 19.12.2025
https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/trotz-zoll-deal-schweizer-industrie-hat-probleme-usa-deutschland-franken-ld.1916879

Supplementary Sources:

1. Swissmem – Association of Swiss Machinery, Electrical and Metal Industries (latest economic surveys)
2. KOF Economic Research Institute ETH Zurich (industrial trends, value creation forecasts H1 2026)
3. UBS Economic Research (currency forecasts USD/CHF, EUR/CHF; tariff policy scenarios)
4. Swissmechanic – SME industry association (labor market, short-time work statistics)
5. Barclays Research (Euro zone recovery, German industrial dynamics)

Verification Status: ✓ Facts verified on 19.12.2025

This text was created with the support of Claude 3.5 Sonnet.
Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: 19.12.2025