Executive Summary

The market research company Forrester has published a Global Sovereignty Forecast for the first time and evaluates the technological sovereignty of 14 countries for 2025 to 2030. Germany is expected to increase its index value from 34 to only 36 percent – minimal growth. China reaches 82 percent, the USA 79 percent, and maintains its clear lead. Major European economies remain dependent on foreign technologies and strategic partnerships.

People

  • Moritz Förster (Author, Heise)

Topics

  • Technological sovereignty
  • Digital independence in Europe
  • Chip and cloud dependencies
  • Geopolitical risk management

Clarus Lead

Europe's digital dependence is intensifying structurally. While China and the USA consolidate their technological dominance through 2030, Germany stagnates with only 2 percentage points of growth – a signal of failed sovereignty policy in the technology sector. For decision-makers in government and industry, dependence on chip supply chains and cloud services becomes a strategic risk in conflict situations. The forecast shows: not autarky, but controlled dependence through alliances is the realistic goal.

Detailed Summary

Forrester evaluates technological sovereignty based on nine concrete dimensions: government AI investments, cloud operations, IT specialist availability, independent AI model development, data center capacity, operational independence of data centers, chip production, software development, and rare earth processing. This multidimensional approach captures not only production capacities but also operational dependencies – for example, when a country owns data centers but their hardware supply chains or cloud software are controlled by foreign actors.

In chip manufacturing, Forrester expects the strongest progress: the USA and South Korea are expected to jump from 45 to 79 percent respectively, Japan from 36 to 53 percent. Yet despite these investments, semiconductors and software will remain central problem areas in 2030 – due to highly concentrated supply chains and oligopolistic software providers. Germany does not benefit proportionally from these chip advances. The index refutes the myth of complete economic autarky: strategic partnerships and alliances are the more realistic model for mitigating geopolitical pressure risks.

Key Takeaways

  • Germany increases its technological sovereignty by only 2 percentage points by 2030 (34 → 36%), while China and the USA maintain their lead
  • European countries remain structurally dependent on chips, cloud, and critical IT – autarky is not the goal
  • Chip manufacturing shows the strongest gains globally; however, remains concentrated and thus a geopolitical risk
  • Nine dimensions (AI, cloud, specialists, data centers, software, rare earths) demonstrate that partial self-sufficiency is insufficient

Critical Questions

  1. Index Validity: How does Forrester validate the nine dimensions? Are weightings and measurement methods transparent and independently reviewed?

  2. Investment Assumptions: Is the forecast based on confirmed investment commitments or trend extrapolations? What unexpected policy changes could invalidate the forecast?

  3. Partnerships vs. Autarky: If strategic alliances are the realistic goal – how does the index measure genuine sovereignty when dependence on the strategic partner remains?

  4. Chip Supply Chain Concentration: Forrester acknowledges monopolistic structures as a problem – but names no solution scenarios. How should these bottlenecks be resolved?

  5. German Specifics: Why does Germany's growth (2 PP) differ so greatly from France (2 PP) and Spain (2 PP)? Are there sectoral differences?

  6. Scenario Risks: Which events (Taiwan conflict, new US sanctions) could reshape the 2030 values?

Bibliography

Primary Source: Sovereignty: Germany Falls Further Behind – Heise News, Moritz Förster

Verification Status: ✓ 2025

This text was created with the support of an AI model.
Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Checking: 2025