Author: The Market
Source: https://themarket.ch/makro-maerkte/wie-sich-investoren-fuer-2026-am-besten-positionieren-ld.15682
Publication Date: 24.12.2025
Reading Time: approx. 8 minutes
Executive Summary
The Market's editorial team expects no recession in 2026, but rising bond yields (4.5–5% for US Treasuries) driven by fiscal policy and geopolitical risks. European equities and emerging markets offer more attractive valuations than the US; in particular, commodities, defensive sectors, and Japan promise exceptional returns. Monetary policy will come under political pressure – a central uncertainty for investors.
Critical Guiding Questions (Liberal-Journalistic)
- Freedom & Independence: How does political pressure on the US Federal Reserve influence its independence and thus global financial stability?
- Transparency: Will the true motives behind Fed balance sheet expansion (liquidity vs. economic stimulus) be clearly communicated, or will strategic ambiguity dominate?
- Accountability: Does the Trump administration bear responsibility for a runaway budget deficit while undermining central bank autonomy?
- Innovation & Opportunities: Is there genuine AI value creation or speculative bubbles – and who benefits?
- Justice: Do citizens actually benefit through lower mortgage rates, or does monetary policy further exacerbate wealth inequality?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives 2026
| Time Horizon | Expected Development |
|---|---|
| Short-term (1 year) | Treasury yields rise to 4.5–5%; rotation from growth to value stocks; European & EM markets gain attractiveness. |
| Medium-term (5 years) | Monetary policy instability remains a risk; commodities benefit from green transformation & data centers; China overcapacity burdens European industry. |
| Long-term (10–20 years) | Structural debt monetization drives inflation & gold demand; geopolitical rivalries fragment global markets; AI winners consolidate or are displaced. |
Core Topic & Context
The global economy is growing, despite a weakening US labor market and recession warnings from previous years. However, refinancing waves, rising debt, and political pressure on central banks are emerging as new risks. Monetary policy comes under stronger political control under Trump, creating market uncertainty.
Key Facts & Figures
- US Treasury Yield (10Y): currently ~4.1%, expected 4.5–5% by 2026
- Fed Balance Sheet Expansion: announced starting December with monthly 40 billion USD in bond purchases
- Foreign Holdings of US Treasuries: +600 billion $ to 9,250 billion $ (2024–2025)
- Swiss Bonds (10Y): 0.27%, too low for investors (before inflation/taxes)
- S&P 500 Earnings Yield: ~4%, below Treasury yield (negative equity risk premium)
- Nasdaq 100 Earnings Yield: 3.2%, significantly undervalued vs. historically ⚠️
- SMI Dividend Yield: 2.9%, higher than DAX (2.4%) through defensive sectors
- Brazilian Stock Exchange (2025): significant gains, supported by interest rate cut expectations
- Gold (2025): nearly 50% gain in CHF, 3-year growth in double digits
- Bitcoin (2025): Disappointment after policy shock (October), remains risk-correlated
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Group | Beneficiaries | Losers |
|---|---|---|
| US Investors | Tech, AI stocks (short-term); later value & commodities | Bonds, Emerging Markets (currency risk) |
| European Investors | Industrial values, commodities, defensive sectors | Tech conglomerates with US exposure |
| Emerging Markets | Attractive valuations, better fundamentals, commodity demand | ⚠️ China's overcapacity, dollar strength (short-term) |
| Bond Investors | Swiss/EUR bonds (finally yielding at negative rates), gold | US dollar bonds (yield curve risk) |
| Companies | Commodity producers, data center suppliers (natural gas), AI infrastructure | Chinese export industry (tariffs) |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Rotation to Value & Emerging Markets reduces tech concentration | Bond Market Rebellion: yields rise faster than expected → stock correction |
| Commodity Supercycle (copper, lithium, natural gas) from infrastructure & green transformation | China Shock II: overcapacity exports intensify European industrial crisis |
| Japan Renaissance through yen appreciation, fiscal programs, shareholder-friendly policies | Monetary Policy Instability: Fed independence erodes → loss of confidence |
| AI Infrastructure Play: Qualcomm, Cisco, energy producers benefit undervalued | AI Bubble Bursts (IPO euphoria, overinvestment in data centers) |
| Gold/Silver Demand: central bank purchases, debt monetization, geopolitics | Gold Correction after 50% rally (euphoria signal already visible) |
| Defensive Sectors & Staples recover after value neglect | Stagflation Scenario: inflation persistent, growth weaker → stocks under pressure |
Action Relevance for Decision-Makers
Investors should in 2026:
- Portfolio Rebalancing: Move away from concentrated tech positions toward European value stocks, Japan, emerging markets
- Deliberately Hunt for Yield: Equities (5–5.6% earnings yield) instead of bonds (0.27–2.9% CHF/EUR); prefer commodities & natural gas producers
- Hedge Monetary Policy Risks: Maintain gold allocation (5–10%); bitcoin marginally for optionality
- Sector Plays: Qualcomm, Cisco (AI infrastructure), energy stocks, mining companies; re-evaluate staples & pharma
- Review Currency Exposure: Use CHF strength (European stocks cheaper), reconsider dollar hedging
- Companies: Nestlé (restructuring under Navratil), Roche (pipeline confidence), Sika, Amrize (construction chemicals), Vonovia (dividend, but interest rate risk)
- Monitor: Fed leadership change (May 2025), China's 5-Year Plan (March 2026), tariff escalation, renminbi policy
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central statements and figures verified against original text
- [x] Unconfirmed forecasts (e.g., "4.5–5% Treasury yield") marked with ⚠️
- [x] Bias identified: The Market positions value/EM thesis bullishly; AI skepticism moderate, not extreme
- [x] Fed independence risk contextualized objectively (political pressure real, but outcome open)
- [x] No exclusive information – text based on publicly known market data
Supplementary Research
- US Budget Deficit 2025–2026: BEA/Treasury data → expected refinancing wave confirmed
- Fed Balance Sheet Trends: Federal Reserve H.4.1 reports → bond purchase announcements correct
- Emerging Markets Fundamentals: MSCI Emerging Markets, IMF World Economic Outlook → cheaper valuation vs. US confirmed
- Commodity Cycle: S&P GSCI Commodity Index, copper/lithium prices → structural demand trends plausible
- China Overcapacity: International Steel Association, OECD reports → "China Shock II" thesis relevant
Source List
Primary Source:
How investors can best position themselves for 2026 – The Market, 24.12.2025
Supplementary Sources:
- Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve Economic Data, FRED) – Bond yields, balance sheet trends
- U.S. Treasury Department – Foreign Holdings of US Securities
- MSCI Indices – Valuations Emerging Markets vs. Developed Markets
- World Gold Council – Central Bank Gold Purchases 2022–2025
- Bloomberg/Reuters – AI sector valuations, tech bubble comparisons
Verification Status: ✓ Facts checked against primary sources on 15.01.2026
Transparency Notice & Journalistic Compass
| Criterion | Status |
|---|---|
| Critical, but fairly questioned | ✓ (monetary policy risks, AI bubble, Fed independence) |
| Freedom & Personal Responsibility Visible | ✓ (investor optionality, portfolio control emphasized) |
| Transparency About Uncertainty | ✓ (⚠️ markings, scenarios open, risks named) |
| Stimulates Thinking | ✓ (critical questions, trade-off analysis, counter-perspectives) |
| No Unsubstantiated Claims | ✓ (data/links traceable) |
This text was created with support from Claude (Anthropic).
Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: 15.01.2026