How the USA Wants to Govern Venezuela – Trump Cares More About Oil Than Democracy

Summary

Following the arrest of Nicolás Maduro by American elite forces in a nighttime operation, Donald Trump declares that the USA will take over Venezuela for now. The American president emphasizes the interest in Venezuela's oil reserves and suggests that María Corina Machado, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and opposition leader, will initially play no role. Instead, Trump signals cooperation with interim president Delcy Rodríguez, who, however, immediately thereafter strikes anti-imperialist tones. Washington's exact strategy for the period after Maduro remains unclear.

People

• Donald Trump – US President
• Nicolás Maduro – Ousted Venezuelan dictator
• María Corina Machado – Opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate
• Marco Rubio – US Secretary of State
• Delcy Rodríguez – Venezuelan Vice President/Interim President
• John Ratcliffe – CIA Director
• Dan Caine – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Topics

• Military operation "Absolute Resolve"
• US foreign policy and regime change
• Venezuelan oil resources
• Drug enforcement
• Latin American geopolitics

Detailed Summary

The Arrest of Maduro

Nicolás Maduro was arrested in the night of Saturday, January 3, 2026, by American elite forces at the Fuerte Tiuna military complex. Together with his wife Cilia Flores, the ousted Venezuelan dictator was overcome in a surprise operation. The deposed president was subsequently brought to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, New York, where he awaits trial.

The operation was the result of months of preparation. According to the "New York Times," the CIA had agents in Venezuela since August who gathered extensive information about Maduro. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, explained that the armed forces had created a precise "life pattern" of the dictator: "We had to understand how he moved, where he lived, what he ate, what he wore, what pets he had."

The Military Operation

Operation "Absolute Resolve" was a complex military action. More than 150 aircraft were involved, and in a coordinated covert action, the lights in almost all of Caracas were first switched off. Donald Trump expressed himself with undisguised pride about the execution: "The speed, the violence . . . man, it was incredible." He also revealed that the armed forces had practiced the operation on a replica of the building.

Trump compared the Venezuela mission to Operation "Midnight Hammer" from June of the previous year, in which the American Air Force had disabled Iranian nuclear facilities. He called the Venezuela operation "perhaps even more complex." Particularly noteworthy was Trump's statement that he had followed the operation "in real time" at his Mar-a-Lago estate: "I watched it like I was watching a TV show."

Trump's Political Vision

Trump was vague about the political future of Venezuela. The United States would "take over" Venezuela, he explained, but did not specify how he envisioned this. He only said that the US would not shy away from deploying soldiers on Venezuelan soil – which the successful raid proved.

However, Trump indicated that he is less interested in a large-scale troop deployment. His main focus is rather on access to Venezuela's oil reserves. "We will get the oil flowing again," he emphasized. Trump argued that this would also benefit Venezuelans themselves, but also emphasized economic advantages for the USA: American oil corporations would invest large sums in Venezuela.

Additionally, Trump justified the operation with the fight against drug trafficking, which he said claims hundreds of thousands of lives in the USA every year. Maduro had been closely entangled in these illegal activities.

The Question of Succession

Regarding Maduro's succession, Trump came to a surprising assessment: Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado, the leading figure of the Venezuelan opposition, was indeed "a very nice woman," but lacked sufficient support in the country.

Instead, Trump signaled cooperation with interim president Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro's former vice president. Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, had conducted a lengthy phone call with her, Trump said. She had responded "favorably" to the American attack and "cooperation" was possible.

However, just a few hours later, Rodríguez contradicted Trump's account clearly. In a public address, she said: "We will never be slaves again. Never again will we be the colony of an empire." Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello called on Venezuelans to protest against the USA.

Rubio's Perspective

Marco Rubio, whose parents once fled communists from Cuba, has a longer-term perspective on the region than Trump. For over a decade, he has advocated for regime change in Venezuela. In interviews, he tried to dampen expectations for a quick democratic transition. One had to be realistic: after 15 years of Chavismo, a "transition to the market" had to take place first. Holding elections would be premature.

Rubio emphasized that priority lay on "the security and well-being of the United States." Regarding criticism that Trump spoke of a US "government" of Venezuela, Rubio said: "It is not governed – policy is made."

At the same time, Rubio also expressed "great admiration" for María Corina Machado, which points to internal tensions between Trump's immediate approach and Rubio's longer-term strategy.

Key Statements

• Successful Military Operation: The USA conducted a complex, months-long military operation in which it arrested Nicolás Maduro and his wife.

• Oil Interests at the Forefront: Donald Trump explicitly emphasizes the interest in Venezuela's oil reserves and future American investments, not democratic reforms.

• Unclear Succession Arrangement: Washington apparently has no worked-out plan for the period after Maduro. Trump's confidence in Delcy Rodríguez is immediately contradicted by her anti-imperialist rhetoric.

• Marginalization of Opposition: Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado is portrayed by Trump as lacking sufficient support, although Marco Rubio supports her.

• Long-term Goals Unclear: While Trump acts impulsively, Rubio's approach suggests a longer-term strategy against left-wing authoritarianism.

• Drug Enforcement as Justification: Trump also justifies the operation with the fight against Maduro's involvement in drug trafficking.

Management Summary

Author: Andreas Scheiner
Source: https://www.nzz.ch/international/bringen-das-oel-zum-fliessen-trump-will-venezuela-vorerst-uebernehmen-ld.1918683
Publication Date: 05.01.2026
Reading Time: approx. 8 minutes

Executive Summary

The USA has arrested Nicolás Maduro in a military operation and now effectively controls Venezuela. Donald Trump prioritizes economic interests – particularly access to oil resources – over the promotion of democracy. The succession arrangement is unclear, initial signals from the interim president suggest resistance to US dominance. This will be a test for Trump's "America First" policy: Can it be reconciled with stability in the region?

Critical Guiding Questions

1. Freedom & Sovereignty: How can Venezuela maintain its independence if the USA seeks economic control over oil resources?

2. Responsibility & Accountability: Who is liable for the deployment of over 150 aircraft and the military operation – and by what criteria is this operation legitimate?

3. Transparency & Information: Why do Rodríguez's statements immediately contradict Trump's portrayal of her "favorable" stance?

4. Innovation & System Change: Can a "transition to the market" lead to sustainable prosperity without parallel democratic reforms?

5. Power & Control: Who will actually decide Venezuela's future – Trump, Rubio, a local interim administration, or still-unknown actors?

Scenario Analysis

Main Summary

Core Topic & Context
The USA has forced a regime change in Venezuela through a major military operation. Instead of clear democratic goals, economic interests (oil) and security policy motives (drug enforcement) dominate. The actors involved – Trump (impulse-driven), Rubio (strategic), local forces (resistant) – pursue partially divergent goals.

Key Facts & Figures

• Over 150 aircraft were involved in the operation
• CIA presence in Venezuela since August 2025
• Maduro is detained in the Metropolitan Detention Center Brooklyn
• 15 years of Chavismo rule to be overcome
• Maduro allegedly deeply involved in drug trafficking according to Trump; this allegedly claims hundreds of thousands of deaths in the USA annually
• ⚠️ Unclear: How many US soldiers are currently stationed in Venezuela? What specific investments are planned?

Stakeholders & Affected Parties

• Winners: US oil corporations (investment opportunities); Rubio (lifework against left-wing authoritarianism); short-term: Trump (military/political success story)
• Losers: Maduro regime (dismantled); María Corina Machado (ignored); Venezuelan civilian population (uncertainty)
• Responsible Parties: Trump (de facto control); Rubio (foreign policy); Rodríguez (local administration, reluctant?)

Opportunities & Risks