Executive Summary

The Federal Council commissioned the Swiss Federal Audit Office (EFK) in 2024 to evaluate the quality of forecasts in decision-making documents. The EFK has prepared a report with seven recommendations for improvement, which the Federal Council approved on 1 July 2026. The recommendations aim to ensure that specialist offices more frequently create quantitative forecasts, adhere to quality standards in a binding manner, and present uncertainties more transparently. The Federal Council intends to implement the recommendations without additional resources and proportionally, with specialist offices continuing to bear responsibility.

Persons

  • Federal Council (collegiate body; responsible for implementation)

Topics

  • Forecast quality in legislation
  • Quality assurance in data processing
  • Parliamentary decision-making foundations
  • Transparency in voting explanations

Clarus Lead

The quality of forecasts in Federal decisions is becoming a strategic issue: While the voting population and Parliament depend on reliable foundations, the EFK report reveals systematic gaps in forecast presentation and risk communication. The Federal Council must now maintain a balance between elevated standards and limited resources – implementing changes without an additional budget will realign the administration's priorities.

Detailed Summary

The EFK identified two priority areas for action in its audit. First, specialist offices must use quantitative forecasts more frequently, explicitly understand risks, and treat quality standards as binding. For significant proposals, they should increasingly draw on external expertise and subject forecast models to enhanced quality controls. Second, existing requirements for forecast presentation must be better observed – both in Federal Council messages and in voting explanations. Central to this is the demand to systematically address forecast uncertainties in order to increase transparency towards decision-makers.

The Federal Council commits to the objectives of the recommendations, but emphasizes the necessity of proportional implementation. It does not want to blur responsibilities: specialist offices remain responsible for the correctness and proper presentation of their forecasts. At the same time, it will strengthen responsibility and processes within the offices and supplement these with targeted review – without generally increasing the administrative burden for legislative projects. Given tight Federal finances, the recommendations are to be implemented largely without additional resources.

Key Statements

  • The EFK recommends seven concrete measures to improve forecast quality in Federal decisions.
  • Specialist offices should more frequently create quantitative forecasts and transparently communicate risks and uncertainties.
  • The Federal Council accepts the recommendations but implements their implementation subject to budget reservations – without additional budget.

Critical Questions

  1. Evidence/Data Quality: Which specific individual cases did the EFK analyze to support its findings on poor forecast quality? Are these cases representative of the entire Federal administration?

  2. Conflicts of Interest: How is it ensured that specialist offices remain independent in forecast creation when they are simultaneously responsible for the political implementation of their proposals?

  3. Causality: To what extent is it unclear whether poorly presented forecast uncertainty is actually the cause of poor decisions, or do other factors play a role?

  4. Feasibility: How can specialist offices create more frequent quantitative forecasts without additional resources while simultaneously conducting enhanced quality controls?

  5. Side Effects: Is there a risk that stricter forecast requirements will lead to delays in legislative processes?

  6. Monitoring: How will the Federal Council review the implementation of the seven recommendations and report on progress?

Source Directory

Primary Source: Switzerland-EU Package (Bilateral III) – Federal Council Improves Quality of Forecasts

Verification Status: ✓ 01.07.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: 01.07.2026