Summary
Janos I. Szirtes analyzes in this guest commentary the continued relevance of intelligence services despite the digital information age. The author argues that classical espionage thrives on the myth of secrecy and serves politicians as "welcome actors" for unsubstantiated or sensitive foreign policy objectives – even though 95 percent of all information is legally accessible. The EU espionage scandal involving Hungary shows that traditional intelligence services have not disappeared despite the internet and social networks, but instead follow their own logic that transcends the modern information space.
Persons
- Janos I. Szirtes – Political scientist, author
- Allen Welsh Dulles – Founder of US foreign intelligence
- Günter Guillaume – East German spy in the chancellery
- Willy Brandt – Chancellor (resigned 1974)
- Donald Trump – US President (Greenland interest)
Topics
- Efficiency and effectiveness of intelligence services
- Diplomatic espionage and source protection
- Hierarchical structures in secret organizations
- Hybrid warfare and disinformation
- Domestic espionage against political opponents
- Information tsunami and digital surveillance
Detailed Summary
The Myth of Secrecy
Espionage primarily thrives on the myth of secrecy and intrigue, which intelligence services themselves cultivate for self-preservation. Unlike all other human activities, intelligence services do not have to substantiate their conclusions rigorously – they constantly refer to "anonymous sources" and thereby evade critical scrutiny. Politicians have only two options: believe or disbelieve. This structure makes intelligence services politically "indispensable actors".
Inefficiency versus Political Utility
US intelligence pioneer Allen Welsh Dulles established 75 years ago that 95 percent of information is legally accessible. Today this ratio is even more favorable for legal sources. Nevertheless, intelligence services have never been abolished. Research institutes could deliver similar quality at a fraction of the cost, yet politicians cling to intelligence services because they function as tools for politically sensitive or unsubstantiated objectives – for example, in the Iraq invasion, where the CIA utilized dubious information regarding weapons of mass destruction.
Hierarchical Paralysis and Learning Processes
The military structure of intelligence services proves to be a significant disadvantage in analysis. Superiors can simply command their views. The classic example is the Mossad's miscalculation before the Six-Day War in 1967, when the director did not believe Egypt would attack. The Mossad subsequently established a department to challenge conclusions.
Diplomatic Cover and "Patent-Leather-Shoe Espionage"
Approximately half of official diplomats are intelligence service employees. This "patent-leather-shoe espionage" procures information that would also be accessible through normal diplomatic exchange – the primary advantage lies in higher budgets for contacts and invitations. Whoever possesses diplomatic immunity remains unassailable, while informal sources face criminal prosecution.
Political Consequences of Revelations
The scandal involving Günter Guillaume, who was exposed in 1974 as an East German spy in Willy Brandt's chancellery, led to the unintended resignation of the Chancellor – an outcome that East Berlin had not intended. Publicly exposed espionage against allies leads to isolation: Hungary under Viktor Orbán and Austria have been excluded from information sharing.
Espionage in the Age of Hybrid Warfare
Despite the information tsunami on the internet and social networks, espionage follows its own logic that transcends the modern information space. With hybrid warfare by authoritarian powers, new problems emerge, yet intelligence services struggle to adapt.
Core Statements
- Economic Inefficiency: 95 percent of required information is legally accessible; intelligence services exist nonetheless because they fulfill political functions.
- Myth Instead of Substance: Intelligence services live by the myth of secrecy and are not required to justify their conclusions.
- Hierarchical Misjudgments: Rigid military structures lead to analytical distortions; the Mossad reform after 1967 demonstrates necessary countermeasures.
- Political Tools: Governments use intelligence services for unsubstantiated objectives (Iraq War) and domestic surveillance (Merkel wiretapping by NSA).
- Diplomatic Espionage: Approximately 50 percent of diplomats are intelligence officers who operate without personal risk.
- Isolation Through Exposure: Uncovered espionage against allies leads to exclusion from information networks (Hungary, Austria).
- Hybrid Warfare: Modern hybrid wars require adaptation, yet services follow established logics.
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Group | Status |
|---|---|
| Intelligence Services | Beneficiaries of the myth; receive political acceptance despite inefficiency |
| Politicians / Decision-Makers | Use intelligence services as tools for sensitive objectives |
| Diplomats | Serve as cover; half are implicated in intelligence activities |
| Allied States | Risk information isolation if espionage is exposed |
| Democratic Institutions | Endangered by surveillance (NSA scandals) |
| Informal Sources | Bear criminal risk while diplomats remain protected |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Digital transparency could render intelligence services obsolete | Hybrid warfare requires specialized intelligence capacity |
| Hierarchical structure reform (Mossad model) improves analysis | Diplomatic immunity protects investigated agents |
| Open research institutes provide better quality at lower cost | Political interest in "unsubstantiated objectives" ensures intelligence services permanently |
| Public oversight could reduce abuse | Information isolation through exposure weakens national security |
| Authoritarian powers intensify hybrid warfare |
Action Relevance
Relevant for Decision-Makers:
- Efficiency Review: Conduct cost-benefit analyses of intelligence services versus open research
- Structural Reforms: Limit hierarchical paralysis through independent analytical teams (Mossad model)
- Diplomatic Security: Avoid espionage against allies – it leads to information isolation
- Hybrid-Warfare Strategy: Force intelligence adaptation to modern hybrid threats
- Parliamentary Oversight: Establish transparency rules for source protection without destroying the secrecy myth
- Source Protection Reform: Find balance between secrecy and accountability
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central statements verified (Dulles quote, historical events)
- [x] Historical facts verified (Günter Guillaume 1974, Six-Day War 1967)
- [x] No bias detected – balanced criticism of intelligence services and politics
- [ ] ⚠️ Claim "50 percent of diplomats are intelligence officers" – estimate without source
- [ ] ⚠️ CIA Greenland activities – only hinted at, not substantiated
Supplementary Research
- Der Spiegel – Hungarian espionage scandal and EU security (2025)
- Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung – History of intelligence services in Germany
- The Intercept – Snowden revelations on NSA surveillance of allies
- Brookings Institution – Intelligence Reform Studies
Source Directory
Primary Source:
Janos I. Szirtes: "Espionage is the Second Oldest Profession of Mankind – It Will Also Survive the Information Tsunami" – Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), 09.01.2026
https://www.nzz.ch/meinung/spionage-ist-das-zweitaelteste-gewerbe-der-menschheit-sie-wird-auch-das-zeitalter-des-informations-tsunamis-ueberleben-ld.1908633
Supplementary Sources:
- Christopher Andrew: The Secret World: A History of Intelligence (2018)
- Markus Wolf: Man Without a Face: The Autobiography of Communism's Greatest Spymaster (1997)
- Edward Snowden: Permanent Record (2019)
Verification Status: ✓ Facts checked on 09.01.2026
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Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: 09.01.2026