End of German Energy Crisis in Sight: Goldman Sachs Predicts Gas Price Collapse by 2027

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Author: Mark Böschen
Source: The Market – Economists Predict End of German Energy Crisis
Publication Date: December 2, 2025
Reading Time: 4 Minutes

Executive Summary

Leading investment banks expect the end of the European energy crisis by 2027 through massive increases in liquefied natural gas imports. European gas prices are expected to fall by almost 50% to 17 €/MWh – pre-crisis levels – thereby significantly lowering electricity prices. In parallel, German government measures (industrial electricity price 0.05 €/kWh, grid charges, electricity tax reduction) serve as a bridging solution until structural relief occurs, but do not create sustainable reforms of the business location.

Critical Guiding Questions (Liberal-Journalistic)

1. Dependency Trap: Is Germany merely replacing energy dependence on Russia with new dependence on the USA and Qatar – without strategic sovereignty?

2. Subsidies vs. Structural Reforms: Will multi-billion-euro subsidies (1–2 billion €/year industrial electricity price) become a permanent crutch instead of fundamentally reducing administrative bureaucracy and social security contributions?

3. Investor Reality Gap: Why hasn't the positive energy price perspective been factored into German stock valuations yet – crisis of confidence or blind investor anxiety?

Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives

Short-term (until 2026)

• Industrial electricity price stabilizes: German companies effectively pay around 0.05–0.08 €/kWh (below US levels).
• Relief volume: approximately 12.5 billion € through abolition of gas storage surcharge, grid charges, electricity tax reduction.
• Risk: Bureaucratic hurdles and 50% subsidy cap limit full effectiveness.

Medium-term (2027–2028)

• Gas price collapse expected: Liquefied natural gas terminals operational (e.g., Brunsbüttel), European gas price falls to pre-crisis levels.
• Electricity prices fall significantly; industrial electricity price subsidies are phased out.
• Structural competitiveness improves through external factors, not through internal reforms.

Long-term (2030+)

• Green energy transition: Hope for independence through renewable energy remains central.
• Risk: New dependence on LNG exporters becomes entrenched; geopolitical instability (USA, Qatar) becomes price risk.
• Germany needs structural reforms (taxes, social contributions, bureaucracy) to remain competitive long-term.

Main Summary

Core Theme & Context

The German economy suffers from structural decline: Industrial production shrinks for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 by 2% (BDI forecast). Causes: "China Shock" (competition from Chinese companies), high bureaucratic and social security contributions, and skyrocketing energy prices following the end of Russian gas imports. Now light appears at the end of the energy tunnel – but the question remains: Is this enough for economic recovery?

Key Facts & Figures

• Goldman Sachs Forecast: European gas price falls by ~50% to 17 €/MWh by H2 2027 (currently: 28 €/MWh; end of 2024: 50 €/MWh).

• Electricity Price Comparison: German companies currently pay an average of 0.10 €/kWh; USA: 0.08 €/kWh; with industrial electricity price subsidy: approximately 0.05–0.08 €/kWh.

• Government Relief Package (2025–2028):

  • Industrial electricity price: 1–2 billion €/year (cost brake for taxpayers)
  • Abolition of gas storage surcharge (from January 2026): 2 billion € relief
  • Lower grid charges (2026): 6.5 billion €
  • Electricity tax reduction: 3 billion €
  • Total relief: ~12.5 billion €

• Affected Sectors: 91 subsectors eligible for industrial electricity price; particularly chemicals, steel, mechanical engineering.

• ⚠️ Uncertainty: Goldman Sachs forecast based on assumed increase in global LNG supply; geopolitical disruptions (US policy, Middle East conflicts) could delay forecast.

Stakeholders & Affected Parties

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities:

• ✅ Short-term Breathing Room: Industrial electricity price secures competitiveness until 2028.
• ✅ Medium-term Normalization: Gas price collapse 2027 significantly reduces structural energy costs.
• ✅ Investor Profit Potential: German stocks undervalued; LNG expansion not fully reflected in valuations.
• ✅ Geopolitical Diversification: Move away from Russian energy dependence (strategic gain).

Risks:

• ⚠️ New Dependencies: Exchange of Russia dependence for USA and Qatar dependence; pricing power shifts.
• ⚠️ Subsidy Trap: Government solves no structural problems (bureaucracy, social contributions, investment climate); subsidies act like painkillers, not cures.
• ⚠️ Delay Risk: LNG terminal expansion plans could be delayed; geopolitical crises (e.g., USA-Qatar conflicts, Middle East) could throttle LNG supply.
• ⚠️ BDI Warning Serious: Structural decline (4 years of production decline) not solved by energy prices alone; "Free fall" of the business location requires reform of state, taxes, regulation.
• ⚠️ Investor Skepticism: Hope for recovery is sparse; even positive forecasts meet disbelief.

Action Relevance

For Governments:

1. Immediate: Simplify industrial electricity price bureaucracy; reconsider 50% limit.
2. 2026–2027: Accelerate LNG terminal expansion plans; guarantee investment security.
3. Structural (parallel): Reduce tax burden, reform social contributions, streamline regulation – not just subsidize energy prices.

For Companies:

1. Immediately: Submit industrial electricity price applications; check subsidy cumulation.
2. Planning: Align investment cycles with 2027/2028 normalization (calculate LNG price fall).
3. Risk: Don't rely on subsidies; diversify and increase efficiency.

For Investors:

1. ✅ Opportunity: German industrial stocks (chemicals, mechanical engineering, steel) undervalued; LNG scenario not yet reflected in prices.
2. Time Horizon: Medium-term (3–5 years) cheaper than currently perceived.
3. ⚠️ Caution: Structural reforms remain lacking; risk of political instability/new elections persists.

Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking

Verification Status: ✅ Core statements and figures verified on December 2, 2025 (publication date)

Supplementary Research & Context Sources

1. Bloomberg / EIA – Electricity Price Comparisons: Daily updated international electricity price database; confirms order of magnitude (DE ~10–12 ct/kWh incl. charges vs. USA ~8 ct/kWh).

2. Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA) – Grid Charges 2026: Official German regulatory authority; publishes annual grid charge reductions annually (6.5 billion € savings plausible for 2026).

3. Industry Report: VCI (Chemical Association), BDI (Federation of German Industries): Confirm industrial electricity price support; but criticize bureaucracy and lack of structural reforms (see original VCI press release in article).

4. IEA (International Energy Agency) – Global Gas Security Review 2025: Contrast source to Goldman Sachs optimism; warns of LNG capacity gaps and geopolitical risks (recommended for balanced scenario assessment).

5. Deutsche Bank Research – Energy Market Brief (28.11.2025): Primary source for electricity price comparisons and subsidy effectiveness analysis; considered credible and data-driven.

Source Directory

Primary Source:
The Market – "Economists Predict End of German Energy Crisis" – Mark Böschen, December 2, 2025

Supplementary Sources:

1. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research: Energy Market Analysis (November 9, 2025) – LNG forecasts and gas price scenarios
2. Deutsche Bank Research: Carolin Raab, Maximilian Uleer, Francesca Mazzali – Energy Price Competitiveness Analysis (November 28, 2025)
3. Federation of German Industry (BDI): Economic Forecast 2025 – Structural Challenges German Industry
4. VCI (Association of the Chemical Industry): Statement Industrial Electricity Price (November 2025)
5. Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA): Grid Charge Notices 2026

Internal Links (Clarus / The Market):

• [Electricity Price – Further Articles](