Summary

The Swiss research program NCCS-Impacts, led by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), has developed several digital web apps to visualize the impacts of climate change on forests, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems. The tools show site-specifically how natural resources and their services could change in the future. The goal is to support decision-makers in politics, administration and the private sector in planning adaptation measures. The program runs from 2022 to 2026; all results will be available bundled from autumn 2026 onwards.

People

Topics

  • Climate change adaptation in Switzerland
  • Forest management and ecosystem services
  • Agricultural climate resilience
  • Water management and precipitation patterns
  • Decision-making foundations for politics and administration

Clarus Lead

Climate change destabilizes the foundations of sectors that depend directly on natural resources. Swiss research institutions have therefore developed practical planning instruments that enable authorities and operations to identify concrete regional risks and tailor measures accordingly. The integration of scientific models into user-friendly apps addresses a growing need: decision-makers require reliable, spatially differentiated scenarios to justify and optimize investments and measures in the context of climate change.

Detailed Summary

Forest Management Under Pressure. Swiss forests are increasingly experiencing drought, storms and pest infestations. Spruce – economically central – is dying off in the lowlands or must be felled earlier. Many protection forests are overstocked and vulnerable to extreme events. Foresters needed tools to understand forest development not only locally, but also in a larger context. The ForClim App from ETH Zurich uses a dynamic model that not only depicts a forest stand, but simulates its development over decades under different climate scenarios. Users enter stand data; the model calculates how long the timber stock will last and which tree species are future-proof. This allows foresters to make targeted decisions about which interventions make sense. The FORTE App provides a large-scale overview: it shows on maps how forests and their multifunctionality – timber production, habitat, protection from natural hazards – could change regionally. The tool was created at the request of the cantonal chief forester conference and is aimed at politics and planning at the regional level.

Agricultural Yield Risks. Climate change lengthens growing periods and intensifies heat and water scarcity. Crop failures in dry years are increasing; some crops benefit from warmer winters. Ecological interactions – such as between plants and pollinators – are shifting. The CLIMAGS App from Agroscope shows regionally how arable crops and grassland, pollination potential and soil carbon could develop in the future. It does not provide action recommendations for individual farms, but rather provides a basis for authorities to assess impacts on the environment, economy and society and to initiate discussions in practice.

Rethinking Water Management. Climate change shifts precipitation patterns: less summer rain, more winter precipitation, increasingly as rain rather than snow. Drought threatens drinking water supply and energy production; flooding washes away sediments and over-fertilizes lakes. The AquaREL App from the University of Geneva forecasts changes in precipitation, runoff and water temperature on map displays for all of Switzerland and individual regions. It is aimed at specialists and the interested public and is intended to help identify risks early and adapt water management accordingly.

Key Messages

  • Four specialized web apps (ForClim, FORTE, CLIMAGS, AquaREL) make climate change impacts on forests, agriculture and water bodies visible on a site-specific basis
  • The tools use scientific models and scenarios to support decision-makers in planning and risk reduction
  • The NCCS program bundles cross-sectoral climate services; complete results will be available from autumn 2026 onwards

Critical Questions

  1. Model Validation: What empirical data and calibration procedures underlie the scenarios in ForClim and AquaREL? How frequently are the models compared with field observations?

  2. Uncertainty Representation: How are uncertainty margins communicated in the apps? Is there a risk that users will misunderstand scenarios as deterministic forecasts?

  3. Adoption Barriers: What obstacles have so far prevented broad adoption by smaller farms and municipalities? Is training and technical support adequately resourced?

  4. Adaptation Gap: Do the apps also show which adaptation measures are technically or economically unfeasible? Or is there a risk that decision-makers will develop unrealistic expectations?

  5. Cross-Sectoral Conflicts: How do the tools address target conflicts – for example between forest protection and timber production, or between irrigation and drinking water protection?

  6. Governance and Binding Nature: What legal or political binding nature do the recommendations from the apps have? Who bears responsibility for forecast errors?

Source Directory

Primary Source: Swiss Federal Government – NCCS-Impacts Research Program: Climate Change Tools for Forests, Agriculture and Water – https://www.news.admin.ch/de/newnsb/u6lCQc5bf4zApcg3gDBwd

Supplementary Resources:

  1. National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) – www.nccs.admin.ch
  2. WSL Knowledge Platform – wsl-forte.shinyapps.io/CSDashboard-DE/
  3. ForClim App (ETH Zurich) – www.wsl.ch/de/services-produkte/forclim-app-simulationen-fuer-die-planung-von-waldmassnahmen/
  4. FORTE App – www.wsl.ch/de/services-produkte/forte-app-online-tools-fuer-die-waelder-von-heute-und-morgen/
  5. CLIMAGS App (Agroscope) – www.wsl.ch/de/services-produkte/climags-impacts-app-die-zukuenftige-entwicklung-der-waldbestaende/
  6. AquaREL App (University of Geneva) – www.wsl.ch/de/services-produkte/aquarel-app-auswirkungen-des-klimawandels-auf-aquatische-oekosysteme/

Verification Status: ✓ 26.05.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: 26.05.2026