Summary
The Old-Age Insurance (AVS) and Disability Insurance (AI) conclude 2025 with solid financial results. The compenswiss fund recorded a return of 6.34% on managed assets of 50.6 billion francs. However, the fund warns of significant burdens from the 13th AVS pension, to be paid out for the first time starting in December 2026, which will exacerbate structural deficits.
People
- Elisabeth Baume-Schneider (Federal Councillor)
Topics
- AVS financing and profitability
- 13th AVS pension and its impacts
- Swiss social security systems
Clarus Lead
AVS and AI close 2025 with a net return of 6.34% on managed assets of 50.6 billion francs. This success is primarily driven by positive equity returns, gold performance, and currency effects. However, the compenswiss fund forecasts increasing structural deficits from 2026 onwards, as the 13th AVS pension will create full-scale burdens for the first time. The government has built up 2 billion francs in liquidity reserves as a buffer.
Detailed Summary
Swiss social insurance systems benefit in 2025 from favorable market conditions. Compared to 2024 (7.33%), returns fell by just under one percentage point but remain significantly positive. Managed assets grew by 4.5 billion francs – an increase resulting from both return gains and ongoing contribution inflows.
The 13th AVS pension, however, presents a sustainable challenge. This additional annual pension, due for the first time in December 2026, requires expenditure jumps that the Federal Office of Social Insurance cannot fully cover through regular returns. Accordingly, a liquidity buffer of 2 billion francs was established as a precaution. The fund warns that distribution deficits will increase in the medium term unless reform measures are introduced. Parliamentary discussions on the exact financing modality are still ongoing.
Key Points
- 2025 return: 6.34% on 50.6 billion CHF in assets
- Asset growth: +4.5 billion francs compared to 2024
- 13th pension burden: Structural deficits expected from 2026
- Buffer financing: 2 billion CHF liquidity reserves set aside
- Parliamentary openness: Financing mechanism not yet finalized
Critical Questions
Data Quality: How reliable are the return calculations reported by compenswiss, and what valuation methods underlie the 50.6 billion CHF?
Incentive Concentration: Is there a conflict of interest between the fund as asset manager and its financing forecasts, since optimistic scenarios could delay external reforms?
Causality Analysis: To what extent is the positive 2025 return (6.34%) structurally sustainable, or is it primarily driven by one-time market factors (gold, equity boom, currency gains)?
Alternative Consideration: Which competing financing models for the 13th pension were evaluated – contribution rate increases, VAT expansion, tax revenue – and why was the current buffer model preferred?
Implementation Risks: If stock market volatility pushes returns below 4–5% in coming years, how long will the 2-billion reserve last?
Reform Timeline: Are structural adjustments (retirement age, benefits) being negotiated in parallel with the 13th pension, or is there temporal separation?
Sources
Primary Source: AVS et AI bouclent 2025 dans les chiffres noirs – Blick, September 2025
Verification Status: ✓ September 2025
This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: September 2025