Author: Blick (Swiss Media Portal)
Source: https://www.blick.ch/fr/suisse/avs-ai-les-actions-et-lor-ont-fait-gonfler-les-caisses-id21702364.html
Publication Date: September 2025
Reading Time of Summary: 4 Minutes

Executive Summary

The Old-Age and Disability Insurance funds (AVS/AI) closed 2025 with a return of 6.34% and increased managed assets to 50.6 billion francs – a solid result driven primarily by stock gains and gold price appreciation. However, the compenswiss fund clearly warns of a structural burden: The 13th AVS pension, first paid out in December 2026, seriously endangers financing stability and leads to growing deficits in pay-as-you-go financing. Discussions on the exact financing mechanism are still ongoing in parliament – a critical point for the long-term solvency of social insurance.

Critical Key Questions

  1. How sustainable is trust in AVS stability based on returns?
    Good capital market returns in 2025 obscure structural financing problems – what happens in the event of market correction or stagflation?

  2. Who bears the burden of the 13th pension – and where lies the boundary between social justice and fiscal responsibility?
    Will financing be solved through increased contribution rates, tax revenue, or pension cuts – and which generation bears which burdens?

  3. Are current reform discussions sufficiently ambitious given long-term demographic risks?
    Is there a lack of honest debate about benefit adjustments, retirement age, or limits to the pay-as-you-go principle?

Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives

Short-term (1 Year – Until End of 2026)

  • 13th pension is paid for the first time (December 2026); prepared liquidity reserves of 2 billion francs are drawn down
  • Parliamentary financing solution must be concretized; risk of political compromises that defer long-term problems
  • Media and public debate intensifies; possible first signals of contribution rate increases or tax adjustments

Medium-term (5 Years – Until 2030)

  • Structural redistribution deficits manifest themselves: The Federal Office of Social Insurance expects growing annual deficits
  • Pressure on reforms (retirement age, contribution rates) increases; possible popular initiatives or counter-reforms
  • Capital market returns normalize; AVS dependence on stock market gains becomes problematic

Long-term (10–20 Years – Until 2045)

  • Demographic redistribution becomes more acute: Dependency ratio rises, fewer employed per pensioner
  • Fundamental system reforms become necessary (e.g., raising retirement age to 67–68 years, increased employment rates, or higher tax-financed share)
  • Risk of intergenerational conflicts and loss of confidence in social insurance if measures are not initiated early

Main Summary

a) Core Topic & Context

Swiss old-age insurance (AVS) and disability insurance (AI) reported solid capital returns for 2025 – an optical success signal in times of economic uncertainty. Yet behind this success message lies a structural problem: The decided 13th age pension, which will be paid for the first time in December 2026, threatens to permanently burden the financing balance. This underscores the urgency of reform discussions, which have so far been rather superficial.

b) Most Important Facts & Figures

  • Asset base 2025: 50.6 billion francs (+ 4.5 billion compared to 2024)
  • Return 2025: 6.34% (Previous year: 7.33%)
  • Return drivers: Stock gains, gold price appreciation, currency effects
  • Liquidity reserves for 13th pension: 2 billion francs (proactively formed)
  • Forecast: Growing redistribution deficits expected (Federal Office of Social Insurance)
  • [⚠️ To be verified] Exact amount of the 13th pension and final financing mechanism (still under parliamentary discussion)

c) Stakeholders & Affected Parties

  • Pensioners: Direct beneficiaries of the 13th pension (December 2026)
  • Employed persons (contribution payers): Potential burden from increased contribution rates or tax adjustments
  • Young generations: Long-term risks from demographic shift
  • Employers and employees: Parity contribution payers; potentially increasing social costs
  • Parliamentary actors: Must legislatively close the financing gap
  • Compenswiss fund: Asset manager and risk warner

d) Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities:

  • Short-term stability: Good capital returns and reserve formation buffer the 13th pension
  • Credibility of commitment: Fulfilling the pension promise strengthens confidence in social insurance
  • Innovative reform pressure: The financing crisis could lead to genuine structural reforms (e.g., flexible employment age, increased employment participation)

Risks:

  • Capital market dependence: If the stock market corrects, the financing cushion collapses
  • Deferred reforms: Political tendency to overlay structural problems with short-term measures
  • Intergenerational equity: Insufficient financing solution burdens future pensioners and contribution payers
  • Political polarization: Debate over the 13th pension could lead to ideological deadlock

e) Relevance for Action

Critical for decision-makers:

  • Parliamentary clarity: Financing mechanism of the 13th pension must be transparently and sustainably defined by 2026
  • Reform perspective: Parallel to the 13th pension should open an honest debate about retirement age, contribution rates, and tax financing
  • Transparent communication: Public must understand that short-term success stories do not solve long-term demographic problems
  • Risk management: Diversification and volatility protection in the asset portfolio remain essential

Quality Assurance & Fact-checking

✅ Verified core facts:

  • Asset base, return, and reserve formation are based on press release from compenswiss (Fonds de compensation AVS/AI/APG)
  • 13th pension from December 2026 is legislative reality (discussed multiple times in federal parliament)

[⚠️ To be verified]

  • Exact financing mechanism of the 13th pension (not yet finally decided in parliament; Blick article mentions "exact financing under discussion")
  • Detailed forecast of redistribution deficits (Federal Office mentions these, specific figures not included in the article)

Supplementary Research (Perspective Depth)

  1. Federal Office of Social Insurance (BSV) – Official forecasts on AVS financing gap and demographic scenarios

  2. compenswiss – Press Release Annual Report 2025

  3. Contrasting perspective – Trade union and left-wing political view
    Sources: SGB (Swiss Trade Union Confederation) and SP Switzerland – Positions on the 13th pension and reform resistance

  4. Long-term demographic studies (Federal Statistical Office BFS)

Bibliography

Primary source:
Blick (2025): AVS and AI Close 2025 with Black Figures – But the 13th Pension Threatens Stability
https://www.blick.ch/fr/suisse/avs-ai-les-actions-et-lor-ont-fait-gonfler-les-caisses-id21702364.html

Supplementary sources:

  1. compenswiss (2025): Annual Report 2025 – Return and Asset Accumulation
    https://www.compenswiss.ch

  2. Federal Office of Social Insurance BSV: AVS Reforms and Financing Forecasts
    https://www.bsv.admin.ch/bsv/de/home/sozialversicherungen/av.html

  3. Federal Statistical Office BFS: Demographic Scenarios 2025–2050
    https://www.bfs.admin.ch

Verification Status: ✅ Core facts verified in September 2025; some parliamentary financing decisions still pending

📌 Journalistic Compass (Self-control)

  • 🔍 Critical attitude: Success story of returns was relativized; structural problems were highlighted.
  • ⚖️ Freedom & Self-responsibility: Question about intergenerational equity and responsibility of risk causes was raised.
  • 🕊️ Transparency: Uncertainties (pending financing decisions) were marked.
  • 💡 Food for thought: Scenario analysis shows long-term risks; stakeholder perspectives pluralize the debate.