Publication Date: 17.11.2025
Author: FINMA (Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority)
Source: FINMA Media Release
Publication Date: November 17, 2025
Summary Reading Time: 4 minutes
Executive Summary
FINMA diagnoses a significantly intensified risk landscape for the Swiss financial center with nine main risks classified as "high". Geopolitical tensions, cyberattacks and structural weaknesses in the real estate market dominate the threat analysis. For the first time, the supervisory authority systematically integrates climate risks into its monitoring – a sign of the growing complexity of systemic risks that extend beyond traditional financial market hazards. The warning about "generous affordability practices" for mortgages and the critical dependence on few IT service providers signals urgent need for action.
Critical Key Questions
Where does sensible risk limitation end and where does regulatory over-control begin – particularly regarding the announced tightening of mortgage supervision and the planned "capital surcharges"?
What innovation opportunities emerge through digital transformation when cyber and IT risks are simultaneously identified as the main threat – and how can fintech companies leverage this discrepancy for competitive advantages?
Does systemic risk concentration among IT service providers lead to new "too-big-to-fail" scenarios outside the traditional banking sector – and how transparent are these dependencies for market participants?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
Short-term (1 year):
Tightened supervisory practice for mortgage lending and increased IT security audits. Possible capital surcharges for high-risk institutions. Implementation of the new too-big-to-fail reform begins.
Medium-term (5 years):
Structural adjustments in the real estate financing market due to demographic change and tax reform. Consolidation among IT service providers or state regulation of systemically critical technology suppliers. Climate risks become operationally measurable and priced.
Long-term (10-20 years):
Fundamental realignment of financial market architecture through geopolitical fragmentation and technological disruption. Possible emergence of new systemic risk sources through climate and demographic change that make traditional risk models obsolete.
Main Summary
Core Theme & Context
FINMA warns of "increased complexity" of the risk landscape that combines traditional financial and novel non-financial threats. The first-time inclusion of climate risks and the prominent addressing of geopolitical tensions reflect a paradigm shift toward monitoring systemic interdependencies instead of isolated individual risks.
Most Important Facts & Figures
- 9 main risks classified as "high" – balance between financial and non-financial threats
- Nearly 50% of all cyber incidents affected third parties, not the financial institutions directly
- Mortgage debt per capita at one of the highest levels worldwide
- Real estate prices show regional "overheating tendencies" for rental properties and vacation homes
- First-time integration of the climate risk report into the regular risk monitor
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
Directly affected: Retail banks, life insurers, pension funds, IT service providers of the financial sector
Indirectly affected: Real estate owners, mortgage borrowers, investors in Swiss financial products
Regulatory actors: FINMA, Swiss National Bank, Federal Council (too-big-to-fail reform)
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities: Proactive risk addressing strengthens long-term competitiveness of the financial center. Climate risk integration positions Switzerland as a pioneer in sustainable financial regulation.
Risks: Over-regulation could impair innovation capacity and international attractiveness. Systemic IT dependencies create new "single points of failure". Geopolitical tensions threaten the role as a neutral financial center.
Action Relevance
Immediate need for action: Evaluate IT security and third-party risks. Review mortgage portfolios for affordability practices. Systematically capture climate risk exposure.
Strategic preparation: Anticipate too-big-to-fail reform. Implement geopolitical scenario planning. Establish technological resilience as a competitive factor.
Source Directory
Primary Source:
FINMA Risk Monitor 2025: Accentuated geopolitical risks
Verification Status: ✅ Facts checked on 17.11.2025