Executive Summary

Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis warned Swissholdings on 24 April 2026 that the global order has fundamentally changed. Globalization is becoming more political and the economy is becoming a geopolitical instrument. Switzerland cannot exist in isolation and must rely on openness, clear rules, and predictability. The Federal Council rejects the 10-million initiative and a neutrality initiative. Market access to Europe – with 450 million consumers – is crucial for prosperity: every second franc comes from exports.

Persons

Topics

  • Geopolitics and globalization
  • Bilateral relations Switzerland-Europe
  • Economic policy and market access
  • Swiss neutrality
  • Domestic initiatives

Clarus Lead

In a fragmented world where sanctions and technological controls have become instruments of power, Switzerland is deliberately positioning itself against isolationism. The upcoming votes on the 10-million initiative (14 June) and on neutrality (September) will become a test case for this strategy: Cassis argues that isolation and simple solutions would weaken Switzerland – not strengthen it. The focus on bilateral treaties (Bilaterals III) with Europe rather than isolationist positions signals that the government is reassessing economic interdependence as a security factor.

Detailed Summary

Cassis diagnoses a paradigm shift: the long period of stable, interconnected globalization is over. Today, states use sanctions, market access, and technological controls as geopolitical levers. Paradoxically, globalization becomes more immediate in the process – not less relevant. Under these conditions, Switzerland cannot function as an isolated island; instead, it must leverage its geographic position in the European context.

Switzerland's prosperity is based on a simple formula: openness requires clear rules, predictability, and stability. Half of the nation's wealth comes from exports. Europe, with its 450 million consumers, remains by far the most important market – followed by the United States (approximately one-fifth of the EU volume) and China (approximately one-tenth). The Federal Council therefore decided to consistently pursue the bilateral path: Bilaterals III offer tailor-made market access to the European internal market with legal certainty – the foundation for business planning and job creation.

Cassis implicitly criticizes two political tendencies: First, the 10-million initiative, which he rejects as isolation. Second, misunderstandings about neutrality, which he defines not as passivity but as a strategic instrument for security, independence, and prosperity. Modern sovereignty means not absolute independence but the intelligent management of dependencies. Economic actors are called upon as ambassadors and co-shapers to stand up for open markets – silence is not protection but leaves decisions to others, often in the sense of isolation.

Key Messages

  • Globalization is becoming more political; the economy has become a geopolitical instrument of power
  • Switzerland can only prosper through openness, clear rules, and predictability
  • Bilateral treaties with Europe (Bilaterals III) are at the core of Swiss foreign economic policy
  • Isolation and simple solutions weaken Switzerland in complex times
  • Modern sovereignty means the intelligent management of dependencies, not absolute independence

Critical Questions

  1. Evidence: What empirical data substantiate that "every second franc" comes from exports, and how has this ratio evolved over the past five years?

  2. Data Quality: Are the market shares (USA = one-fifth, China = one-tenth of EU volume) based on current trade statistics, and how volatile are these ratios?

  3. Conflicts of Interest: To what extent does the prioritization of market access to Europe reflect the interests of large export corporations, and how are sectors with different priorities (e.g., agriculture, SMEs) taken into account?

  4. Causality: Does the fact that globalization is "becoming more political" necessarily mean that Switzerland must prefer bilateral treaties – or are there alternative strategies (e.g., multilateral coalitions)?

  5. Feasibility: How concrete are Bilaterals III, and what timeline and negotiation hurdles are realistic?

  6. Counter-hypothesis: Could stronger diversification of export markets (e.g., Asia, Middle East) reduce the dependency risk on Europe?

  7. Neutrality: How is the rejection of a neutrality initiative compatible with Switzerland's self-description as neutral, and what scenarios would justify abandoning neutrality?

Bibliography

Primary Source: Speech by Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis to Swissholdings, 24.04.2026

Verification Status: ✓ 24.04.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: 24.04.2026