Executive Summary

A current Axpo report warns of an impending electricity gap in Switzerland during winter months when nuclear power plants are taken offline and electricity consumption increases due to heat pumps and electric mobility. Axpo experts, supported by scientists from ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute, have developed two main scenarios: accelerated expansion of wind and solar energy with gas power plants or abandonment of nuclear phase-out with new reactor blocks. Dr. Nathalie Casas, head of the Department of Energy, Mobility and Environment at Empa and new member of SATW, contextualizes the results from a research perspective.

Persons

Topics

  • Energy supply and electricity supply security
  • Nuclear phase-out and energy transition
  • Renewable energies and technology alternatives
  • CO₂ reduction and climate policy

Clarus Lead

Switzerland faces a critical energy decision with immediate relevance for economy and society. The Axpo report documents that there is no technological silver bullet – each option (wind energy, gas power plants, new nuclear reactors) carries specific challenges between feasibility, costs, and social acceptance. For decision-makers, this means: without active choice for at least one technology, a supply crisis looms; abandoning all options is not possible.

Detailed Summary

Casas confirms the key findings of the Axpo report: progressive electrification of heating and mobility as well as population growth will significantly increase electricity demand. She emphasizes that the technical analysis is factually correct, but assessments of social acceptance do not constitute exact science. From a purely technological perspective, wind energy is elegant – it produces predominantly in winter and is comparatively cost-efficient. However, the challenges lie on the social side.

Regarding criticism of rooftop photovoltaics, Casas takes a differentiated position: the economic analysis is correct, but not all externalities of other technologies may be factored in. More importantly: many people pay a premium for energy independence and self-determination. With increasingly affordable battery storage, this advantage strengthens. Another plus point is agility – rapid implementation without lengthy approval processes.

For gas power plants, Casas recommends building them "capture-ready" from the outset so that CO₂ capture can be retrofitted once framework conditions are right. She rejects direct air capture for interim power plants – the technology is thermodynamically expensive and should be used strategically for unavoidable emissions (hard-to-abate). Geothermal energy and heat storage already play important roles today; Empa investigates shallow heat storage for optimization and regulatory adjustment.

Key Statements

  • No technology stands out significantly: All scenarios (wind/gas, new nuclear reactors, extended operating life) have their challenges; a combination of multiple technologies is necessary.

  • Social acceptance is central: Technical feasibility alone is insufficient; political will, an informed society, and fact-based discussion are decisive.

  • Decision imperative: Abandoning all technologies is not possible – whoever says "no" to one option must say "yes" to another.

  • No-regret measures exist: Photovoltaic and wind power expansion, electric mobility, and heat pumps make sense in every scenario.

Critical Questions

  1. Evidence/Data Quality: On which datasets are the winter consumption forecasts for heat pumps and electric mobility based, and how sensitive are the scenarios to assumptions about adoption of these technologies?

  2. Conflicts of Interest: To what extent do Axpo's business interests (nuclear power, hydropower) influence the weighting of scenarios, and were external, independent experts consulted for validation?

  3. Causality/Alternatives: The report presents two main scenarios – were hybrid scenarios (e.g., 60% renewable + 40% nuclear + storage) systematically analyzed, or were these excluded from the outset?

  4. Wind Energy Feasibility: Casas calls wind energy technically elegant but acknowledges social hurdles – what concrete measures could lower acceptance barriers in Switzerland, and how long would realistic expansion take?

  5. Gas Power Plant Emissions: How reliable are the assumptions about later retrofitting of CO₂ capture in gas power plants, and what regulatory guarantees exist for this?

  6. Geothermal Potential: Casas mentions geothermal energy as an important local solution – why is this potential not analyzed as a standalone scenario in the Axpo report?

  7. Financing and Time Horizons: What investment volumes and timeframes are required to realize each scenario by 2035/2040, and how realistic are these given current political processes?

  8. Storage Technologies: The report addresses long-term storage (seasonal) only marginally – how critical is this for winter supply, and which technologies are available?

Source Directory

Primary Source: Axpo Report on Swiss Electricity Supply – news.admin.ch, 09.06.2026

Supplementary Sources:

  1. Empa – Department of Energy, Mobility and Environment: www.empa.ch/web/empa/mobility-energy-environment
  2. SATW – Swiss Academy of Engineering Sciences: www.satw.ch
  3. ETH Zurich and Paul Scherrer Institute (Axpo Report Cooperation Partners)

Verification Status: ✓ 09.06.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: 09.06.2026