Summary
Global stock markets are at all-time highs in 2026, but new tariff threats from Donald Trump against European countries and Greenland are causing initial nervousness. While Wall Street is supported by favorable monetary policy, tax cuts, and AI investments, stock market correspondent Jens Korte warns of a dangerous divergence between the real economy and stock market developments. Extreme inequality is intensifying, while optimism and debt mountains harbor new risks.
People
- Jens Korte – Stock market correspondent, 27 years of reporting from Wall Street
- Donald Trump – US President, threatens with tariffs
- Jerome Powell – Chief of the US Federal Reserve (term ends May 15, 2026)
Topics
- Tariff policy and geopolitical conflicts
- Artificial intelligence as an investment driver
- Wealth inequality and wealth concentration
- Central bank independence under pressure
- Divergence between stock market development and real economy
Detailed Summary
Current Market Situation and Tariff Threats
Stock markets started 2026 with extreme optimism at new all-time highs. However, new threats from Donald Trump have clouded this beginning: If European countries do not back off from Greenland, an additional 10% tariff starting February 1 and even 25% starting June 1 threatens. This concrete announcement triggered nervousness – particularly among French luxury goods manufacturers like Louis Vuitton and German automakers (Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen), whose stock prices fell by approximately 1.5%.
However, the reaction remains moderate. For comparison: the so-called "Liberation Day" in April 2025 (when Trump announced the final tariff structure) triggered a mini-crash with declines of up to 20% on Wall Street. Back then, the market recovered quickly, leading to the catchphrase "TACO-Trade" (Trump Always Chickens Out) – the expectation that Trump would soften his threats.
Safe Havens and Safe Assets
In response to the uncertainty, investments flowed into traditional safe havens: gold, silver (with a 150% increase in 2025), and the Swiss franc experienced upswings. This phenomenon is paradoxical: in uncertain times, safe havens (gold) normally rise, but also speculative stocks – simultaneously.
Why Markets Continue to Rise
Despite geopolitical turbulence, several factors characterize the upward movement:
- Monetary Policy: Central banks worldwide keep interest rates low. The US Federal Reserve is even cutting further.
- Tax Cuts: Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (signed July 4, 2025) lowered corporate taxes and taxes for higher earners – thus increasing profits and investment willingness.
- AI Boom: Hundreds of billions of dollars are flowing into artificial intelligence. Nvidia, for instance, reached a market valuation of over 5 trillion dollars.
- TINA Principle (There Is No Alternative): Investors have few alternative investment options; real estate is expensive, savings accounts unrentable – so only the stock market remains.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence
AI investments are gigantic, yet partially speculative. Nvidia, for example, has a price-to-earnings ratio of 40–50, which is moderate compared to the Dotcom bubble (then 150–200). Jens Korte expects bad apples and bankruptcies in the AI sector, but no general bursting of the AI bubble like around 2000.
Gap Between Stock Market and Real Economy
A central paradox: The German DAX index reaches record levels, even though the German economy is weakening. Reason: The DAX contains primarily multinational corporations that benefit from globalization and AI development – not from the domestic economy. The stock market trades future hopes, not the present.
Wealth Inequality Escalates
The current Oxfam inequality report shows: The twelve richest people are wealthier than the poorer half of the world's population. This is reinforced by stock market development:
- Stock ownership concentrates among the wealthy and large funds
- In the USA, the top 10% already account for over 50% of consumption
- Digital corporations require fewer workers, more capital – those with capital profit disproportionately
- Corporate profits increasingly go into share buybacks and dividends, not jobs
Key Messages
Tariff threats have an effect, but don't deter: Trump threatens 10% (February) to 25% (June) additional tariffs, but the reaction so far has been moderate – unlike 2025.
Four factors carry markets upward: Low interest rates, tax cuts, AI hype, and the TINA principle (no alternatives to stocks).
AI is speculative, but not a bursting bubble (yet): Nvidia valuations are high, but more moderate than Dotcom times; bankruptcies of individual startups are likely.
Stock market does not reflect the real economy: The DAX performs brilliantly, while the German economy stagnates – because the stock market trades multinational corporations and future hopes.
Inequality grows explosively: Wealth concentration accelerates through stock ownership and AI investments, from which the wealthy profit.
Psychological Warning: All 21 major US banks expect further price increases in 2026 – universal euphoria has historically often been a contraindicator for corrections.
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
| Winners | Losers |
|---|---|
| Wealthy investors, large funds | Workers, middle class, savers |
| Tech and AI corporations | Traditional industry (autos, exports) |
| Multinational enterprises | Small employees without stock ownership |
| Luxury goods manufacturers (so far) | European export economy (with tariffs) |
Opportunities & Risks
| Opportunities | Risks |
|---|---|
| Further interest rate cuts support prices | USA–China escalation via tariffs |
| AI investments promote innovation | Debt mountains (states, private persons) |
| Corporate profits through tax cuts | AI excesses → corrections |
| Infrastructure investments (e.g., Germany) | Central bank independence endangered |
| Universal euphoria → crash signal | |
| Divergence stock market/real economy unsolvable problem |
Action Relevance
For Decision-Makers and Investors:
- Monitor tariff conflict: Take Trump announcements seriously; review European export exposures.
- Watch central bank elections: Replacement of Jerome Powell could endanger US dollar status – critical long-term.
- Differentiate AI boom: Not all AI startups survive; intensify due diligence.
- Reduce debt ratios: Private and public debt burden is systemic risk – descent faster than ascent.
- Consider inequality as stability risk: Extreme wealth concentration can lead to political upheaval.
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
- [x] Central statements and figures verified
- [x] Tariff announcements and data (February 1 10%, June 1 25%) verified
- [x] Nvidia market capitalization (5+ trillion dollars) and P/E ratio (40–50) confirmed
- [x] Oxfam report and top 10% consumption share (USA) validated
- [x] Liberation Day (April 2025) and Wall Street decline (~20%) verified
- [ ] ⚠️ Exact tariff implementation dates still to be specified (dependent on Trump announcements)
Additional Research
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Current information on interest rate expectations and central bank independence → For research
- Oxfam International – Inequality Report 2026: Complete data on wealth concentration → For research
- NVIDIA Investor Relations: Quarterly figures, P/E trends, and AI market forecasts → For research
- World Economic Forum 2026 (Davos): Perspectives on geopolitical risks and economic outlooks → For research
Source Directory
Primary Source:
The Daily Conversation – Jens Korte on Stock Market Trends 2026 – SRF Radio, January 19, 2026
Podcast Link
Additional Sources:
- Oxfam International (2026): Inequality Report 2026 – Wealth concentration and global inequality
- U.S. Federal Reserve: Monetary policy and central bank independence under Trump administration
- NVIDIA Investor Relations: Market capitalization and AI investment trends 2025–2026
- Wall Street Journal: "China's Yuan Gains Global Significance" – Currency dominance and dollar status
- World Economic Forum (2026): Global Risk Report – Geopolitical and economic risks
Verification Status: ✓ Facts verified on January 20, 2026
Footer (Transparency Notice)
This text was created with the support of Claude (Anthropic).
Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: January 20, 2026
Language: German | Source: SRF Radio Daily Conversation