Summary

The Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) has updated its national risk analysis and identified pandemics and power shortages as the greatest threats to Switzerland. Armed conflict remains the risk with the highest potential damage, but is not the priority risk. The analysis forms the basis for future development of civil protection and national security policy.

Persons

Topics

  • Civil protection
  • National risk analysis
  • Pandemic prevention
  • Energy security
  • Security policy

Clarus Lead

The Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) has completed the fourth edition of the national risk analysis "Disasters and Emergencies Switzerland" (KNS). The analysis prioritizes two main hazards: pandemics and power shortages as the greatest risks for Switzerland. Armed conflict is classified as a threat with the highest potential damage, but does not rank at the top of priorities. The findings from KNS 2025 are intended to shape the future design of civil protection and comprehensive security policy.

Detailed Summary

The FOCP has updated its systematic risk analysis, thereby creating an evidence-based foundation for national protection concepts. The analysis takes into account both the probability of occurrence and the potential damage of various hazards. By prioritizing pandemics and power shortages, Switzerland signals a reweighting of its security risks compared to traditional threats.

The finding that armed conflicts would have the greatest damage potential but are not classified as the most immediate threat indicates a differentiated risk assessment. This reflects both geopolitical realities and the vulnerability of modern infrastructure. The Federal Council was informed of the results on February 25, 2026 and can now initiate strategic measures to strengthen energy security and pandemic prevention.

Key Statements

  • Pandemics and power shortages are the priority risks for Switzerland
  • Armed conflicts have the highest damage potential but are not the most immediate risk
  • KNS 2025 serves as a strategic foundation for further development of civil protection
  • The analysis was noted by the Federal Council and is intended to guide security policy

Critical Questions

  1. Data Quality: What scenarios and probability assumptions underlie the assessment of pandemics and power shortages? Were historical data or modeling used?

  2. Methodological Transparency: How were the two dimensions "probability of occurrence" and "damage potential" weighted? Could different weightings lead to different priorities?

  3. Conflicts of Interest: Which stakeholders (energy industry, healthcare, security sector) were involved in the analysis? Could conflicts of interest have influenced the prioritization?

  4. Causality: To what extent are pandemics and power shortages dependent on or reinforcing each other? Were cascade effects considered?

  5. Feasibility: What concrete measures follow from this risk prioritization? Have budgets and resources been reallocated accordingly?

  6. Validation: How is the accuracy of these forecasts verified? Are there comparisons with analyses from other countries?

  7. Time Horizon: Over what period (5, 10, 20 years) does this risk analysis extend? Could priorities shift in the medium term?

Source Directory

Primary Source: Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP) – Press Release of March 2, 2026 https://www.news.admin.ch/de/newnsb/EtQ-GUB40tnB

Verification Status: ✓ March 2, 2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: March 2, 2026