Executive Summary

The Iran war jeopardizes global food security through a massive fertilizer crisis. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz interrupts supply chains for one-third of globally traded fertilizer and strikes farmers at the worst possible time – during the planting season. Urea prices rose by 30 percent within one week. Countries heavily dependent on imports in Africa and Southeast Asia are particularly at risk, where higher fertilizer costs could lead to millions of tons of lost harvest.

People

Topics

  • Energy supply and fertilizer production
  • Global food security
  • Impact on emerging markets
  • Price volatility and inflation
  • Agricultural planting decisions

Clarus Lead

The Strait of Hormuz blocks one million tons of fertilizer – with dramatic consequences for global nutrition. The Middle East produces about one-third of globally traded fertilizer and nearly half of all sulfur exports. Since fertilizer production is 70–80 percent energy-intensive and impossible without gas, the energy crisis drives urea prices up by 30 percent. The crisis hits at the worst possible time: In the Northern Hemisphere, the planting season has begun, and plants need nutrients to ensure yields. Farmers must now bear higher costs, reduce planting, or switch crops – with unforeseeable consequences for food prices and supply.

Detailed Summary

The Iran war reveals an underestimated vulnerability: not oil, but fertilizer. While 21 freight ships with nearly one million tons of fertilizer are stuck in the Gulf region, dependencies become dramatically apparent. The fertilizer market operates on a "just-in-time" basis – without strategic reserves like those for oil. Countries like India subsidize fertilizer with 16 billion euros annually, more than planned for education. This reflects the existential importance for food security. However, due to the strait blockade and rising gas prices (LNG from Qatar 90 percent more expensive), production capacities shrink. New Delhi ordered fertilizer factories to reduce output to 70 percent; many shut down completely.

The impacts vary regionally. Sub-Saharan Africa imports over 90 percent of its fertilizer and spends large portions of income on food – a ticking time bomb. Indonesia's rice reserves last only 44 days. Bangladesh closed four of five factories. Brazil, which imports 85 percent, could destabilize global agricultural commodity markets. For Europe, the situation is less dramatic, yet price volatility still has an impact: fertilizer costs can account for up to 20 percent of operating expenses. The European industry (Yara, SKW Stickstoffwerke Piesteritz) has suffered from high energy prices and reduced production since 2022.

Experts warn of two scenarios. If stabilization occurs within weeks, a temporary price surge like in 2025 could be absorbed. If the blockade lasts for months, structural market distortions and noticeable food price increases from late summer 2026 onwards threaten to occur. The International Food Policy Research Institute warns that the recently achieved normalization of food prices is once again at risk – similar to after the Ukraine war in 2022, but with an important difference: then central grain exports were affected; now an upstream product whose effects are less immediate but have longer-term impacts.

Key Messages

  • Fertilizer blockade hits at the worst possible time: Planting season in the Northern Hemisphere has begun; plants need fertilizer for full yields.

  • No reserves, no alternatives: Unlike oil, there are no global strategic fertilizer reserves worldwide; markets operate on a just-in-time principle.

  • Extreme price jumps: Urea rose 30 percent in one week; LNG prices from Qatar up 90 percent.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia most at risk: Countries that import over 90 percent of fertilizer and spend high portions of income on food.

  • Millions of tons of harvest at risk: Moderate reductions in nitrogen application can result in disproportionate yield losses.

  • European industry under pressure: Domestic fertilizer production significantly reduced since 2022; high energy prices as a structural problem.

  • Food price increases likely: Effects become apparent with delay, earliest late summer/fall 2026, depending on duration of blockade.

Critical Questions

  1. Evidence/Data Quality: How validated are the Kpler data on 21 freighters with one million tons of fertilizer? Were alternative data sources and verifications used to confirm the blockade report?

  2. Conflicts of Interest/Incentives: To what extent do fertilizer manufacturers and energy companies have incentives to dramatize price surges in order to justify subsidies or enforce price increases?

  3. Causality/Alternatives: The article directly links gas prices to fertilizer production. Could alternative energy sources (renewable, other gas supplies) be made available in the medium term to compensate for production shortfalls?

  4. Causality/Counter-Hypotheses: Is the observed urea price increase really primarily explainable by the blockade, or do speculation and market hysteria play a significant role?

  5. Feasibility/Risks: If farmers switch to nitrogen-poor crops – what realistic alternatives exist that offer comparable yields and economic viability?

  6. Feasibility/Side Effects: Could subsidized fertilizer prices (as in India) lead to overuse and long-term soil damage if farmers, under price pressure, apply fertilizer less selectively?

  7. Evidence/Source Validity: What empirical evidence supports the thesis that 50 percent of global food "exists only thanks to chemical fertilizers"? Is this quantification reproducible?

  8. Conflicts of Interest/Independence: Is the assessment of IfW economist Mahlkow based on independent research, or are institutional ties to the agricultural industry documented?

References

Primary Source: Iran War: The World Faces a Fertilizer Crisis – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, 14.03.2026

Verification Status: ✓ 14.03.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-checking: 14.03.2026