Executive Summary

The Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) has developed five socioeconomic scenarios for Switzerland (SSP-CH) as part of the NCCS-Impacts program. These scenarios describe possible societal development pathways until the year 2100 without making probability statements. Research partners have modeled greenhouse gas emissions for Switzerland until 2100 based on these scenarios and various climate policies. The results show significant differences in emission levels depending on the scenario. The scenarios serve as a basis for discussion on long-term political and economic decisions.

People

Topics

  • Climate scenarios and futures research
  • Socioeconomic development pathways
  • Greenhouse gas modeling
  • Climate policy decision-making foundations
  • Swiss climate services (NCCS)

Clarus Lead

The publication addresses a central challenge for decision-makers in politics and business: How can long-term investments and regulations be designed when the future is unpredictable? The WSL scenarios offer a scientifically sound framework for making decisions under uncertainty – not through probability forecasts, but through systematic exploration of if-then scenarios. This is relevant because the emissions modeling shows that societal development pathways and climate policies significantly influence greenhouse gas emissions until 2100. The scenarios also make it possible to comprehensively capture interactions between mobility, spatial development, energy supply, and social structures.

Detailed Summary

WSL researchers conducted discussions with nearly 60 scientists from 20 Swiss research institutions and universities to develop scenarios covering socioeconomic areas such as internal security, mobility, spatial development, and education. Using specialized computer software, they calculated internally consistent scenarios, which were subsequently discussed in workshops with interested members of the public.

The five SSP-CH scenarios comprise: (1) a highly modernized economy and society based on renewable energies; (2) a weak state with disintegrating society; (3) a deeply divided society with elite-majority contrast; (4) a Switzerland that relied long on fossil fuels and struggles with high energy prices and environmental degradation by century's end; (5) a society that places social cohesion and well-being above economic success. Gubler emphasizes that none of these scenarios is more likely than another – it is about exploring variants, not making forecasts.

The consulting firms INFRAS and PROGNOS developed packages of climate policy instruments (SPA) on this basis, ranging from strong steering to minimal climate policy. The emissions modeling shows how differently greenhouse gas emissions vary depending on the scenario-climate policy combination. The SSP-CH can also be used for other forward-looking work – for example, for scenarios of the Swiss economy, transport, or biodiversity.

Key Messages

  • WSL developed five socioeconomic scenarios (SSP-CH) for Switzerland until 2100 without probability statements
  • Emissions modeling shows significant differences between scenarios depending on climate policy
  • Scenarios serve as a basis for discussion on long-term decisions in politics, business, and administration
  • Broad scientific support from 60 experts from 20 research institutions
  • All data and scenarios are available on a public website

Critical Questions

  1. Data Quality: What criteria determined the selection of the 60 surveyed experts? Are all relevant sectors and regional perspectives (e.g., mountain regions, urban centers) adequately represented?

  2. Model Validation: How are the consistency calculations of the computer program verified? What sensitivity analyses were conducted to quantify uncertainties in the emissions modeling?

  3. Conflicts of Interest: To what extent could the scenarios be shaped by the perspectives of the participating research institutions and consulting firms? How was pluralism ensured in scenario development?

  4. Causality and Alternatives: Do the scenarios also account for disruptive events (pandemics, wars, technological breakthroughs), or are they based on continuous trends?

  5. Implementability: How are the scenarios concretely translated into policy recommendations? Which decision-makers are already using the SSP-CH, and what measures have been derived from them?

  6. Feedback Effects: Do the emissions models account for feedback effects between climate change and socioeconomic developments (e.g., migration, resource competition)?

Bibliography

Primary Source: Socioeconomic Scenarios for Switzerland – SSP-CH – news.admin.ch, 06.05.2026

Supplementary Sources:

  1. Oberpriller Q. et al. (2026). Greenhouse gas emissions under various socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios for Switzerland. NCCS. https://doi.org/10.55419/wsl:42756
  2. Tschumi P. et al. (2026). Advancing national Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Global Environmental Change, 96, 103105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103105
  3. National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) – www.nccs.admin.ch
  4. SSP-CH Scenarios Website – ssp-ch-szenarien.wsl.ch

Verification Status: ✓ 06.05.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial Responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-Check: 06.05.2026