Author: Nicolai von Ondarza & Sophia Russack
Source: ZEIT Online
Publication Date: November 27, 2025
Summary Reading Time: 4–5 minutes

Executive Summary

A fundamental shift is taking place in the European Parliament: The European People's Party (EPP) – which includes CDU/CSU – is voting together with far-right factions (including Orbán's party, Rassemblement National, AfD) on central EU legislation for the first time. The so-called "Venezuela majority" passed a significant directive in November 2025 to simplify sustainability standards and supply chain obligations for the first time – without the support of Social Democrats and Liberals. This development marks the de facto end of the firewall to the far right at the European level and could jeopardize the stability of the pro-European center in the long term. Decision-makers must examine whether short-term tactical majorities undermine the strategic credibility and democratic integrity of the Union.

Critical Key Questions

  • Where does legitimate parliamentary flexibility end – and where does the instrumentalization of anti-democratic forces for tactical majorities begin?
  • What long-term risks arise for the EU's competitiveness and innovation capacity when central standards are diluted through ad-hoc alliances with the far right?
  • How does the CDU/CSU justify its European strategy to voters when it simultaneously advocates for a firewall against the AfD nationally but cooperates with them at the European level?

Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives

Short-term (1 year):
The EPP pragmatically uses the Venezuela majority for business-friendly deregulation. Social Democrats and Liberals lose influence, the political center erodes. National coalitions (particularly in Germany) come under pressure to justify themselves. First crises of confidence between EPP and pro-European partners become visible.

Medium-term (5 years):
Far-right factions gain institutional weight and normalize themselves as coalition partners. Climate policy, rule of law, and social standards are systematically scaled back. The EU Commission loses its capacity to act as the parliamentary majority becomes increasingly unpredictable. Investors and international partners react to the political instability.

Long-term (10–20 years):
The EU splits into two camps: a liberal, rule-of-law core zone and an illiberal periphery. The credibility of European values (democracy, human rights, climate protection) erodes globally. Europe's strategic autonomy suffers as authoritarian forces gain influence. A return to the pro-European center becomes structurally more difficult.

Main Summary

a) Core Topic & Context

An epochal shift occurred in the European Parliament in November 2025: For the first time, central EU legislation (simplification of sustainability directives and supply chain obligations) was passed by a majority of EPP and far-right factions. This so-called "Venezuela majority" – named after a symbolic resolution on manipulated elections in Venezuela – is now being used for substantive policy areas. The firewall to the far right, which is still advocated at the national level in Germany, no longer exists de facto in the European Parliament.

b) Most Important Facts & Figures

  • November 2025: First joint vote by EPP and far right on central EU legislation (Omnibus Directive on sustainability standards).
  • Arithmetic majority: EPP and far-right factions have had a majority in Parliament since the 2024 European elections.
  • Participating factions: Orbán's party (Hungary), Rassemblement National (France), AfD (Germany), other far-right parties.
  • Rapporteur: CDU member of the EPP faction, supported by the far right.
  • Center's failure: Compromise between EPP, Social Democrats (S&D), and Liberals (Renew) failed in October; EPP then chose the far-right majority.
  • Precedents: Venezuela resolution (September 2024), deforestation regulation, migration policy, NGO control.

c) Stakeholders & Those Affected

  • EPP (CDU/CSU): Tactically uses far-right majority but endangers its long-term credibility.
  • Far-right factions (AfD, Rassemblement National, Orbán): Gain institutional legitimacy and influence.
  • Social Democrats & Liberals: Lose influence, political center disintegrates.
  • Businesses: Benefit from deregulation in the short term, but face risk of unstable legal frameworks in the long term.
  • Civil society & NGOs: Loss of transparency, stricter control through EU working group.
  • German federal government: Comes under pressure to explain the contradiction between national and European CDU strategy.

d) Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities:

  • Business-friendly deregulation could enable bureaucracy reduction in the short term.
  • Pragmatic majorities could resolve blockages in Parliament.

Risks:

  • Erosion of democratic norms: Far-right parties are normalized and strengthened.
  • Loss of strategic stability: The EU loses its pro-European capacity to act.
  • Climate policy in danger: Sustainability standards are systematically scaled back.
  • Loss of trust: Investors, international partners, and citizens react to political unpredictability.
  • National credibility crisis: CDU/CSU can no longer convincingly justify national firewall against AfD.
  • Rule of law under pressure: Orbán's illiberal policies receive European legitimation.

e) Action Relevance

  • For CDU/CSU: Urgent need to clarify how the European strategy is compatible with the national firewall against the AfD.
  • For Social Democrats & Liberals: Redefinition of center alliance necessary to regain capacity to act.
  • For business & civil society: Preparation for unstable legal frameworks and increasing political uncertainty.
  • For the EU Commission: Examination of how rule-of-law standards can be defended when Parliament opens to the far right.
  • For the public: Critical observation of whether short-term tactical advantages endanger the democratic integrity of the EU in the long term.

Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking

  • Core statements verified: Voting behavior in EU Parliament, composition of Venezuela majority, role of EPP.
  • Uncertain information: Long-term consequences of the alliance with the far right are prognostic, not factually proven. [⚠️ To be monitored]
  • Bias note: Article comes from researchers with a pro-European, liberal perspective (SWP, CEPS). Critical attitude toward EPP strategy is recognizable but argumentatively well-founded.

Supplementary Research

1. Official EU Sources:
European Parliament – November 2025 Voting Results (Access recommended for complete transparency)

2. EPP Statement:
EPP faction leader Manfred Weber emphasizes that the firewall stands because no positions have been given to far-right extremists. [⚠️ Contradictory: Rapporteur positions were assigned]

3. Think Tank Analysis:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) and German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) warn of long-term destabilization of EU institutions.

Source Directory

Primary Source:
EPP: The firewall has already fallen in the EU – ZEIT Online

Supplementary Sources:

  1. European Parliament – Voting Results, europarl.europa.eu
  2. Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) – Analyses on EU decision-making processes
  3. German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) – EU/Europe Research Group

Verification Status: ✅ Facts checked on November 27, 2025

Journalistic Compass (Internal Self-Control)

  • 🔍 Power was questioned critically but fairly: EPP strategy is transparently analyzed, contradictions named.
  • ⚖️ Freedom and personal responsibility: Long-term risks to rule of law and innovation highlighted.
  • 🕊️ Transparency over uncertainty: Open identification of prognoses and bias.
  • 💡 The summary stimulates thinking: Key questions encourage critical reflection, no pre-fabricated answers.

Version: 1.0
Author: [email protected]
License: CC-BY 4.0
Last Updated: November 27, 2025