Executive Summary

The State Secretariat for Migration (SEM) recorded a significant decline in asylum applications in March 2026: 1493 new applications represent a decline of 18 percent compared to March 2025. In the first quarter of 2026, a total of 4743 applications were filed – 14 percent fewer than in the same period in 2025 and 557 applications below the SEM forecast. Afghanistan remains the leading country of origin with 289 applications, followed by Eritrea, Somalia, Turkey, and Algeria. The SEM decided on 2518 applications, of which 21 percent were approved. 897 persons without residence rights left Switzerland in an orderly manner.

Persons

Topics

  • Swiss asylum policy
  • Migration figures
  • First Quarter 2026

Clarus Lead

Asylum figures are now systematically falling below SEM forecasts – a signal of the effectiveness of restrictive measures or structural shifts in migration patterns. The 14 percent year-on-year decline indicates a sustained trend that is reframing political debates about asylum capacity and integration priorities. Particularly relevant: the discrepancy between expected and actual applications enables the SEM to optimize resources, while ongoing delays in first-instance decisions (8014 pending cases against target of 5800) reveal structural bottlenecks.

Detailed Summary

The asylum statistics show a differentiated trend: while primary applications declined by 23 percent compared to March 2025, the SEM simultaneously recorded 147 additional secondary applications in the first quarter – an increase that points to family reunification and births. The geographic distribution of origins remains concentrated in a few countries: Afghanistan (289), Eritrea (170), and Somalia (153) account for over one-third of all March applications combined.

In terms of decisions, there is an approval rate of 21 percent among 2518 processed cases. The orderly return of 897 persons – of which 549 were voluntary – documents a functioning return administration, while 348 persons were accompanied by police. The reduction of backlogs is proceeding as planned, but the difference of 2214 cases above target indicates ongoing capacity constraints.

Key Findings

  • Asylum applications in Switzerland are declining continuously: March 2026 shows –18 percent compared to previous year
  • First quarter 2026 falls short of SEM forecast by 557 applications (–11%)
  • Afghanistan, Eritrea, and Somalia remain the main countries of origin with a combined total of over 612 applications
  • Approval rate stands at 21 percent; 897 persons left Switzerland in an orderly manner
  • First-instance backlogs (8014 cases) remain 2214 above target of 5800

Critical Questions

  1. Evidence: Which specific policy measures (Dublin procedures, border controls, third-country agreements) explain the 18 percent decline, and is this causality based on empirical studies or correlation?

  2. Data Quality: How does the SEM precisely define "secondary applications," and to what extent do births and family reunification affect the interpretation of "asylum migration" as a phenomenon?

  3. Conflicts of Interest: What incentives does the SEM have to formulate forecasts conservatively in order to demonstrate shortfalls, and how independent is the statistical data collection?

  4. Alternatives: Could external factors (economic conditions in countries of origin, conflict developments in Afghanistan/Eritrea, route changes to other countries) better explain the decline than national measures?

  5. Feasibility: How sustainable is the decline given the ongoing backlog of 2214 cases – is there a risk of congestion due to capacity constraints?

  6. Risks: What are the consequences of longer processing times for integration outcomes and social stability of applicants?

Bibliography

Primary Source: Asylum Statistics March 2026 – State Secretariat for Migration

Verification Status: ✓ 20.04.2026

This text was created with the support of an AI model. Editorial responsibility: clarus.news | Fact-check: 20.04.2026