Climate Change Tools for Forests, Agriculture and Water Bodies: Swiss Research Program Provides Planning Aids

Blog (EN)

by Beate Kittl (Media Officer, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL)

Summary

The Swiss research program Impacts "Ecosystem Services" of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), conducted within the framework of the NCCS, has developed several digital web apps to visualize the impacts of climate change on forests, agriculture and aquatic ecosystems. The tools show site-specifically how natural resources and their services could change in the future. The aim is to support decision-makers in politics, administration and the private sector in planning adaptation measures. The program runs from 2022 to 2026; all results are already available in a bundled format.

People

Topics

  • Climate adaptation in Switzerland
  • Impacts on forest management and ecosystem services
  • Impacts on agriculture
  • Impacts on water bodies, including sediment and nutrient transport
  • Decision-making basis for politics and administration

Clarus Lead

Climate change destabilizes the foundations of sectors that depend directly on natural resources. Swiss research institutions, in collaboration with practitioners, have therefore developed practical planning instruments that enable authorities and businesses to identify specific risks regionally and adapt measures in a targeted manner. The integration of scientific models into user-friendly apps addresses a growing need: decision-makers require reliable, spatially differentiated scenarios to legitimize and optimize investments and measures in climate change.

Detailed Summary

Forest Management Under Pressure. Swiss forests are increasingly experiencing drought, storms and pest infestations. Spruce trees – economically crucial – are dying in the Central Plateau or must be harvested earlier. Many protective forests are over-aged and vulnerable to extreme events. Foresters needed decision-making bases to understand forest development not only locally but also in a broader context. The ForClim App from ETH Zurich uses a dynamic model that not only maps a forest stand but simulates its development over decades under various climate scenarios. Users input stand data; the model calculates how long the timber stock will last and which tree species are future-proof. This enables foresters to make targeted decisions about which interventions make sense. The FORTE App provides a large-scale overview: it shows on maps how forests and their multifunctionality – timber production, habitat, protection against natural hazards – could change regionally. The tool was created at the request of the Conference of Cantonal Forest Directors and is aimed at politics and planning at the regional level.

Agricultural Yield Risks. Climate change extends growing seasons, intensifies heat and water scarcity. Harvest losses in dry years are increasing; individual crops benefit from warmer winters. Ecological interactions – such as between plants and pollinators – are shifting. The CLIMAGS App from Agroscope shows regionally how arable crops and grassland, pollination potential and soil carbon could develop in the future. It does not provide recommendations for individual farms, but rather foundations for offices to classify impacts on environment, economy and society and stimulate discussions in practice.

Rethinking Water Management. Climate change shifts precipitation patterns: less summer rain, more winter precipitation, more frequently as rain instead of snow. Drought threatens drinking water supply and energy production; heavy rainfall washes away sediments and over-fertilizes rivers and lakes. The AquaREL App from the University of Geneva predicts changes in runoff and sediment and nutrient inputs on map representations for all of Switzerland and individual regions. It is aimed at professionals and the interested public and should help identify risks early and adapt water management in a targeted manner.

Key Messages

  • Four specialized web apps (ForClim, FORTE, CLIMAGS, AquaREL) visualize climate change impacts for forests, agriculture and water bodies
  • The tools use scientific models and scenarios to support decision-makers in planning and risk mitigation
  • The NCCS program bundles cross-sectoral climate services; complete results are already available

Critical Questions

  • Model Validation: On which empirical data and calibration procedures are the scenarios in ForClim and AquaREL based? How frequently are the models compared with field observations?
  • Uncertainty Representation: How are uncertainty margins communicated in the apps? Is there a risk that users misunderstand scenarios as deterministic forecasts?
  • Usage Barriers: Which obstacles currently prevent broad adoption by smaller businesses and municipalities? Are training and technical support adequately sized?
  • Adaptation Gap: Do the apps also show which adaptation measures are technically or economically unfeasible? Or is there a risk that decision-makers develop unrealistic expectations?
  • Cross-sectoral Conflicts: How do the tools handle conflicting objectives – such as between forest protection and timber production, or between irrigation and drinking water protection?
  • Governance and Binding Nature: What legal or political binding force do the recommendations from the apps have? Who bears responsibility for incorrect forecasts?

References

Primary Source: Swiss Federal Council – Research Program NCCS-Impacts: Climate Change Tools for Forests, Agriculture and Water Bodies – https://www.news.admin.ch/en/newnsb/u6lCQc5bf4zApcg3gDBwd

Additional Resources:

  • National Centre for Climate Services (NCCS) – www.nccs.admin.ch
  • WSL Knowledge Platform – wsl-forte.shinyapps.io/CSDashboard-EN/
  • ForClim App (ETH Zurich) – www.wsl.ch/en/services-products/forclim-app-simulations-for-planning-forest-measures/
  • FORTE App – www.wsl.ch/en/services-products/forte-app-online-tools-for-todays-and-tomorrows-forests/
  • CLIMAGS App (Agroscope) – www.wsl.ch/en/services-products/climags-impacts-app-the-future-development-of-forest-stands/
  • AquaREL App (University of Geneva) – www.wsl.ch/en/services-products/aquarel-app-impacts-of-climate-change-on-aquatic-ecosystems/
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