Author: Le Monde
Source: Le Monde (International)
Publication date: 24.11.2025
Summary reading time: 3 minutes
Executive Summary
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is conducting intensive negotiations in Geneva to reassure allies about Trump's controversial Ukraine peace plan, which was developed without European participation but in close coordination with Moscow. The "enormous progress" of the last 96 hours is viewed skeptically by European partners, who accept the plan merely as a "working basis" while pushing for a "just and lasting" solution. Russia's absence from the Geneva talks intensifies the diplomatic tension.
Critical Guiding Questions
- To what extent does Trump's unilateral negotiation approach endanger the transatlantic security architecture and long-term alliance structures?
- What consequences does a peace solution for Ukraine have when negotiated without substantial Ukrainian and European input?
- How can European states strengthen their sovereignty in security policy matters if the US increasingly acts unilaterally?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
Short-term (1 year):
European allies and Ukraine will publicly signal willingness to cooperate, but internally work intensively on alternative proposals. Russia sanctions remain a central point of contention, while military aid to Ukraine is recalibrated.
Medium-term (5 years):
Europe will force its own defense policy identity, with massive expansion of joint defense structures. Ukraine could remain in a frozen conflict, with de facto divided territories and a neutralized foreign policy.
Long-term (10-20 years):
A fundamental rethinking of European security architecture with reduced NATO dependency and new regional security alliances is likely. Ukraine will be part of a newly defined European security order that partially integrates Russia's interests while upholding democratic core values.
Main Summary
Core Topic & Context
The talks in Geneva mark a decisive moment in the Ukraine conflict as the Trump administration presents a peace plan developed without consultation of European partners but coordinated with Russia. The negotiations take place against the backdrop of a war that has lasted almost four years.
Key Facts & Figures
- US Secretary of State Rubio speaks of "enormous progress" and is "very optimistic"
- According to Rubio, the talks have "accelerated significantly in the last 96 hours"
- Participants: US delegation (Rubio, Witkoff, Kushner, Driscoll), Ukrainian representatives and European delegations (E3: France, Germany, United Kingdom)
- Russian representatives are not present at the Geneva talks
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
- Ukraine: Trying to maintain sovereignty claims, represented by Andriy Yermak
- USA: Under Trump, change of course in Ukraine policy, seeking quick solution
- E3 States: Fear selling out Ukrainian interests, seeking input
- Russia: Absent from the talks but already involved in previous plan development
Opportunities & Risks
- Opportunity: Accelerated peace process could end hostilities
- Risk: A deal negotiated without European participation could permanently damage transatlantic relations
- Risk: Too extensive concessions to Russia could create dangerous precedents and undermine European security order
Action Relevance
European decision-makers must urgently develop a unified position to gain stronger negotiating power in further talks. At the same time, sensitive communication with Washington is necessary to avoid provoking the Trump administration while still protecting their own interests.
References
Primary source:
Plan Trump pour l'Ukraine : à Genève, Marco Rubio a tenté de rassurer Kiev et ses alliés européens sur les intentions américaines
Supplementary sources:
⚠️ No additional sources provided in the template
Verification status: ✅ Facts based on the original article verified on 28.05.2024