Publication Date: 23.11.2025
Author: André Allard
Source: Le Monde – Live Ticker on Ukraine War
Publication Date: November 23, 2025
Summary Reading Time: 4 minutes
Executive Summary
On November 23, 2025, Ukrainian, American, and European representatives meet in Geneva to discuss US President Donald Trump's 28-point plan to end the Ukraine war. Trump accuses Kyiv of lacking gratitude and threatens to halt arms deliveries and intelligence sharing if Ukraine does not agree by Thursday. The plan envisions territorial concessions to Russia (Donetsk, Luhansk), the reduction of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 soldiers, and Russia's return to the G8—demands perceived in Kyiv and Europe as de facto capitulation. Europe, which now bears the main burden of financing, demands a voice in any peace process and warns against a peace solution without security guarantees. The negotiations reveal deep divisions within the US administration and raise the question of whether the West is sacrificing its core principles of sovereignty and rule of law.
Critical Guiding Questions
How much national sovereignty may an aggressor enforce through military violence—and what precedents does a "peace plan" that legitimizes territorial conquests create?
Is Europe being reduced to a mere paymaster while the US decides over Europe's security architecture—and what consequences does this have for a transatlantic partnership of equals?
What long-term incentives does a peace agreement without robust security guarantees set—and how likely is a repeat of aggression within the next decade?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
Short-term (1 year):
If Ukraine accepts Trump's plan under pressure, territorial losses without security guarantees threaten, leading to domestic political instability in Kyiv. The EU intensifies its own defense initiatives as trust in US reliability wanes. Russia consolidates its conquests and tests further border transgressions. If the plan is rejected, Trump could halt military aid—Europe would have to fill the gap, triggering significant fiscal and political tensions.
Medium-term (5 years):
A Trump-imposed "peace" without Ukraine's NATO membership or EU mutual defense guarantees creates a "gray zone" in Eastern Europe, inviting Russia to further hybrid operations. The EU forces its strategic autonomy by expanding its own defense industries and satellite reconnaissance. Central and Eastern European states (Poland, Baltics) invest massively in defense. Erosion of multilateralism: The UN Charter and the principle of territorial integrity lose credibility when borders can be changed through force.
Long-term (10–20 years):
The weakening of Western principles encourages authoritarian regimes worldwide (China regarding Taiwan, other regional conflicts). Europe develops an independent security architecture parallel to NATO—or NATO fragments into a European and North American bloc. Ukraine, without protective mechanisms, could become a "failed state" or long-term Russian-dominated. Alternative scenario: A failure of Trump's initiative leads to revitalization of the transatlantic alliance under new US leadership, with more robust guarantees for Eastern Europe.
Main Summary
a) Core Topic & Context
The 28-point peace plan for Ukraine presented by Donald Trump is being negotiated in Geneva with Ukrainian, European, and American delegations. The plan, which envisages massive territorial concessions to Russia, is perceived in Kyiv and European capitals as a pro-Russian capitulation template. Trump sets a deadline until Thursday and threatens to halt arms deliveries and intelligence cooperation. The conflict reveals deep rifts in the transatlantic alliance and the question of who will decide Europe's security in the future.
b) Key Facts & Figures
- 28-point plan envisages: Cession of Donetsk and Luhansk to Russia, reduction of Ukrainian army from ~800,000 to 600,000 soldiers, Russia's return to the G8
- Trump accuses Ukraine of "no gratitude", although the EU is now the main financier of Ukraine
- Internal contradictions in US administration: Senator Mike Rounds reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the plan was "of Russian origin", later denied
- Europe has reduced its share of Russian oil imports from 26% to 3%, but individual countries (Hungary, Slovakia, France) continue to import Russian gas
- Hungary bought fossil fuels from Russia worth €416 million in August 2025, France €157 million (LNG)
- Russia reported the conquest of three additional localities in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts
c) Stakeholders & Affected Parties
- Ukraine: Risk of territorial losses without security guarantees; domestic political pressure on President Zelenskyy
- USA: Divided between Trump administration (pressure on Kyiv) and parts of Congress (support for Ukraine)
- EU: Demands voice (von der Leyen, Merz), fears marginalization and bears main financial burden
- Central and Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics, Finland, Norway): Alarmed about signaling effect for their own security
- Russia: Benefits from legitimization of territorial gains and possible G8 return
- NATO: Cohesion endangered by unilateral US action
d) Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
- Negotiations could open ceasefire and dialogue channel if improved
- Europe could strengthen strategic autonomy and expand its own defense capabilities
- Finnish, Polish, Canadian satellite and reconnaissance technologies could reduce US dependence
- Turkey (Erdoğan-Putin talks planned) could expand mediator role
Risks:
- Territorial concessions without guarantees create precedent for future aggressions
- Transatlantic alliance erodes if Europe is excluded from security decisions
- Ukraine without NATO/EU mutual defense guarantees becomes permanent conflict zone
- Russia gains time for consolidation and next expansion
- Loss of credibility of the West globally, particularly toward China (Taiwan), Iran, North Korea
e) Action Relevance
For Decision-makers:
- Europe must take united position now: Define clear red lines (territorial integrity, security guarantees)
- Prepare contingency plans for loss of US military aid: Weapons production, satellite reconnaissance, air defense
- Transparency toward public: Clearly communicate costs of bad peace versus continued support
- Use time pressure: Submit European counterproposals with concrete security architectures by Thursday (28.11.)
Moral Responsibility:
The West faces a fundamental question: Will sovereignty and self-determination be defended or sacrificed for short-term relief? The decision has signaling effects for Taiwan, the Baltic States, and all smaller democracies in the shadow of authoritarian great powers.
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
✅ Figures on EU-Russia oil imports: Confirmed by European Council on Foreign Relations and EU Commission (decline from 26% to 3% since 2022)
✅ 28-point plan: Details confirmed multiple times in international media (Washington Post, Politico, Le Monde)
⚠️ Exact number of Ukrainian soldiers (800,000): Difficult to verify, Kyiv does not release official figures
⚠️ Geneva meeting: Participant list confirmed, contents of talks not officially published
Supplementary Research
Kiel Institute – Ukraine Support Tracker: Overview of international financial aid – Europe has now overtaken US as main donor (as of November 2025)
Politico Europe: "Europe scrambles to fill intelligence gap if Trump cuts off Ukraine" – Details on European alternative plans in case of US withdrawal (ICEYE satellites, IRIS² program from 2030)
Washington Post: "Trump's 28-point peace plan draws criticism for favoring Russia" – Analysis of controversies within US government (Rubio vs. Witkoff)
References
Primary Source:
Le Monde – Live Ticker: War in Ukraine, November 23, 2025
Supplementary Sources:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy – Ukraine Support Tracker
- Politico Europe – European intelligence alternatives for Ukraine
- European Council on Foreign Relations – Russian energy imports analysis
Verification Status: ✅ Facts checked on November 23, 2025
Journalistic Compass (Self-Control)
🔍 Power critically questioned: ✅ Both Trump administration and European passivity are analyzed
⚖️ Freedom and personal responsibility: ✅ Ukraine's sovereignty and Europe's strategic autonomy in focus
🕊️ Transparency about uncertainty: ✅ Information gaps and contradictions marked
💡 Stimulation to think: ✅ Scenarios and guiding questions promote critical reflection
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License: CC-BY 4.0
Last Updated: November 23, 2025