Publication Date: 20.11.2025
Meta Information
Author: Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS)
Source: news.admin.ch
Publication Date: 20.11.2025
Summary Reading Time: 3 minutes
Executive Summary
Swiss foreign trade shows stagnation at a high level in October 2025 with structural shifts between individual sectors. While total exports remain at CHF 22.5 billion and the trade surplus declines for the fourth consecutive time to CHF 2.6 billion, significant volatilities are revealed in aviation (-69%) and jewelry (-14%). The strategic dependence on Germany becomes clear with trade growth of over 10% in both directions, while trade with Russia has practically come to a standstill.
Critical Key Questions
- How resilient is the Swiss export economy when individual key sectors like aviation show such volatile fluctuations?
- What long-term risks arise from increasing trade concentration on Germany while Asian exports decline?
- Where is the balance between necessary diversification and efficient specialization in the context of geopolitical uncertainties?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
Short-term (1 year):
Stabilization of trade volume with continued sector volatility. Possible recovery of aviation exports after normalization of order situation. Risk of further declines in Asian business due to currency turbulence.
Medium-term (5 years):
Structural shift to high-tech and pharma as stabilizing factors. Potential reassessment of supply chains to Europe. Watch industry could benefit from luxury demand in emerging markets.
Long-term (10-20 years):
Fundamental transformation of export structure through digitalization and decarbonization. Traditional industrial goods lose importance while knowledge-based services and specialized pharmaceutical products dominate.
Main Summary
a) Core Topic & Context
October 2025 figures show superficial stability of Swiss foreign trade, which however masks considerable sectoral disruptions. The development is characterized by geopolitical reorganization of trade flows and structural adjustments of post-pandemic supply chains.
b) Key Facts & Figures
- Exports: CHF 22.5 billion (-0.3% seasonally adjusted)
- Imports: CHF 19.9 billion (+0.2% seasonally adjusted)
- Aviation exports: -CHF 214 million (-69.3%)
- Germany trade: Exports +12.8%, Imports +9.5%
- Russia imports: CHF 0.8 million (practically zero)
- Watch exports: +1.9% (first recovery since July)
- Trade balance: CHF 2.6 billion (4th consecutive decline)
c) Stakeholders & Affected Parties
- Directly affected: Export industry (pharma, watches, machinery), SMEs in supply sector
- Institutions: FOCBS, SECO, industry associations
- International: German trade partners, Asian sales markets
d) Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
- Resilient pharmaceutical sector as stability anchor
- Recovery of watch exports signals luxury goods comeback
- Strong position in German market
Risks:
- Extreme volatility in aviation endangers planning security
- Asia weakness could diminish long-term growth potential
- Concentration risk Germany in case of EU recession
e) Action Relevance
Companies should review hedging strategies for volatile sectors and advance market diversification. Politics must strengthen framework conditions for innovation without fostering protectionist reflexes. Communication need exists for transparent presentation of structural shifts to investors.
Quality Assurance & Fact Checking
✅ Verified: All figures originate from official FOCBS statistics
⚠️ To verify: Reasons for aviation volatility (no details in original document)
⚠️ Data gap: Structural causes of Asia weakness not explained
Supplementary Research
Recommended Deep Dive:
- SNB exchange rate development CHF/EUR October 2025
- Boeing/Airbus order situation Q3/2025 for aviation contextualization
- Luxury goods index Shanghai/Hong Kong for watch market perspective
Source Directory
Primary Source:
October 2025: Foreign trade stabilizes in both directions – Federal Office for Customs and Border Security, 20.11.2025
Verification Status: ✅ Facts checked on 20.11.2025