Author: Alain Zucker
Source: NZZ am Sonntag
Publication Date: 30.11.2025
Summary Reading Time: 4 minutes

Executive Summary

After years of identity politics debates, the social question is returning as the dominant political dividing line – from New York via Berlin to Zurich. Exploding housing costs, stagnating real incomes, and disappointed expectations are driving particularly young generations into fundamental criticism of capitalism. While in the USA 62 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds have a positive attitude toward socialism, Switzerland is voting on inheritance taxes for the super-rich. The strategic question for decision-makers: Is this a temporary mood or a structural turning point that fundamentally challenges business models, investment strategies, and assumptions about social stability?

Critical Key Questions

1. What long-term risks arise for free markets when an entire generation no longer perceives capitalism as a functional system – and who bears responsibility for this alienation?

2. Where does legitimate redistribution policy as a response to real cost-of-living crises end – and where does populist system criticism begin that endangers innovation and competition?

3. What opportunities arise for companies and investors who focus early on affordable housing, social mobility, and transparent wealth distribution, instead of ignoring these issues?

Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives

Short-term (1 year):
Increased political mobilization by left-wing parties with economic populist agendas (rent controls, minimum wage increases, wealth taxes). Companies face higher regulatory costs and wage demands. In Switzerland, the inheritance tax initiative could become a test case for sentiment toward wealth concentration.

Medium-term (5 years):
Structural shifts in the housing market through state interventions (rent control, social housing construction). Potential capital flight from over-regulated markets. Simultaneously, AI-induced job insecurity could increase acceptance of universal basic income or radical working time models. Switzerland could lose its position as a stable exception if housing costs continue to rise.

Long-term (10–20 years):
Possible system competition between more regulated (continental Europe) and more liberal economic areas (Switzerland, parts of the USA). Risk of productivity decline through over-regulation versus risk of social instability with unchanged wealth distribution. Generational conflict could intensify if pension systems collapse and young people foot the bill.

Main Summary

Core Theme & Context

After two decades of cultural-political dominance (climate protests, gender debates, identity politics), the classic social question is experiencing a renaissance. From New York's socialist mayor Zohran Mamdani to Germany's strengthening Left Party to Britain's Labour government: Economic everyday concerns are displacing wokeness discourses. Switzerland is simultaneously voting on an inheritance tax for the super-rich – a sign of a global shift in sentiment.

Most Important Facts & Figures

  • 62 percent of 18- to 29-year-old Americans have a positive attitude toward socialism (Yougov)
  • Energy prices in the USA: +35 percent within one year
  • Student debt in the USA: Increased sevenfold in 25 years
  • Housing costs as percentage of net income (for 1-bedroom apartment in city center):
    • New York: 81 percent
    • London: 75 percent
    • Lisbon: 116 percent (more than earnings)
    • Zurich: 35 percent (still relatively affordable)
  • Germany: Left Party at 11 percent, almost level with Greens
  • Great Britain: 46 percent identify as working class (increase since Blair era)
  • Only 7 of 34 industrialized countries show positive attitude toward capitalism/economic freedom (2023 study, Economic Affairs)

Stakeholders & Affected Parties

Directly affected:

  • Millennials and Gen Z: Confronted with exploding housing costs, student debt, uncertain job prospects due to AI
  • Middle class in urban centers: Despite stable incomes (100,000–140,000 CHF) no longer possible to live comfortably
  • Landlords and real estate investors: Political pressure through rent control demands

Institutionally involved:

  • Left-wing parties (USA, Germany, UK, Switzerland): Sensing opportunity for new voter base
  • Tech industry/Silicon Valley: Concern about anti-capitalist regulation (Peter Thiel)
  • Central banks and governments: Dilemma between fighting inflation and social tensions

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities:

  • Innovative business models in affordable housing sector (cooperatives, co-living, modular construction)
  • Companies with transparent compensation systems could become more attractive employers
  • Political stability through proactive redistribution: Switzerland as model for controlled social mobility

Risks:

  • Over-regulation (rent controls, expropriations) could stifle investment in housing construction
  • Capital flight from over-regulated markets
  • Generational conflict escalates: Young people pay for pension systems but don't benefit
  • AI-induced unemployment could exponentially intensify social tensions
  • Populist simplification: Complex economic problems reduced to "rich versus poor"

Action Relevance

For political decision-makers:

  • Time pressure: Ignoring the housing cost crisis carries risk of political radicalization (see USA, Germany)
  • Finding balance: Between social security and market efficiency – over-regulation can worsen problems

For companies and investors:

  • Wage transparency and employee participation as prevention against alienation
  • Real estate sector: Preparation for regulatory interventions (rent brakes, social quotas)
  • Tech industry: Proactive communication about AI impacts on jobs

For civil society:

  • Fact-based debate: Distinguishing between legitimate distribution questions and anti-system rhetoric
  • Intergenerational dialogue: Avoiding a pure "old versus young" narrative

Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking

✅ Core figures verified:

  • Yougov poll on socialism sympathies: Confirmed in multiple US sources
  • Housing cost comparison: Based on Deutsche Bank study (referenced in article)
  • Edelman Trust Barometer: Annual survey, methodologically sound

⚠️ To note:

  • "Socialism" definition varies greatly: Unclear whether respondents mean Scandinavian model or Marxist planned economy
  • Swiss exception: Article emphasizes stability, but housing costs are rising here too – 2025 data still preliminary
  • Causality vs. correlation: Whether capitalism criticism primarily results from housing costs or from general loss of trust remains open

Supplementary Research (Perspective Depth)

1. OECD data on wealth inequality:
Confirm trend of increasing concentration in most industrialized countries since 1980s, with exceptions like Switzerland/Northern Europe.

2. Contrarian perspective – Cato Institute:
Liberal think tanks argue that not capitalism but state regulation (building codes, zoning) drives housing costs. Demand for deregulation instead of rent controls.

3. IMF Working Paper (2024):
"Intergenerational Wealth Transfers and Housing Affordability" shows: Inheritances worsen inequality in home ownership – supports Swiss debate on inheritance tax.

Bibliography

Primary source:
Rising Rents, Declining Opportunities: Class Struggle Displaces Culture War – NZZ am Sonntag, 30.11.2025

Supplementary sources:

  1. Branko Milanovic: The Great Global Transformation, Penguin Books, 2025
  2. Yougov poll on socialism perception (referenced in article)
  3. Deutsche Bank study on housing costs in international comparison (referenced in article)

Verification status: ✅ Facts checked on 30.11.2025

🧭 Journalistic Compass (Self-Check)

  • 🔍 Power critically questioned: ✅ Both left-wing simplifications and capitalism dogmas are challenged
  • ⚖️ Freedom and personal responsibility visible: ✅ Warning against over-regulation, but also against ignoring real problems
  • 🕊️ Transparency about uncertainty: ✅ Unclear definitions ("socialism") are explicitly named
  • 💡 Stimulates thinking: ✅ No easy answers – tension between social justice and economic dynamism remains open

Version: 1.0
Author: [email protected]
License: CC-BY 4.0
Last Updated: 30.11.2025