Publication Date: 20.11.2025
Author: Sarah Speicher-Utsch (FAZ)
Source: FAZ.net
Publication Date: 20.11.2025
Summary Reading Time: 3 minutes
Executive Summary
Nvidia once again exceeds expectations with $57 billion in revenue and nearly $32 billion in net profit in Q3, while market observers warn of overheating. Unlike the speculative dotcom bubbles of the 2000s, the AI chip giant has real paying customers like Google/Alphabet and genuine business models. The valuation of over $5 trillion remains ambitious, but the substance fundamentally distinguishes Nvidia from historical speculation bubbles. Investors should consider profit-taking, but collapse scenarios are currently unfounded.
Critical Key Questions
- When does justified innovation become legitimate market valuation – and at what point do systemic risks to capital market freedom emerge?
- How long can a single company dominate the entire AI infrastructure without creating competitive distortions or critical dependencies?
- What responsibility do institutional investors bear when they fuel AI hype while simultaneously potentially leaving real innovations underfinanced?
Scenario Analysis: Future Perspectives
Short-term (1 year):
Nvidia maintains market leadership in AI chips, price-earnings ratio normalizes to 25-35. First competitors (AMD, Intel, custom chips) gain market share. Possible corrections of 20-30% without structural market problems.
Medium-term (5 years):
AI demand diversifies, edge computing and specialized applications emerge. Nvidia must defend its innovation lead against catching-up competition. Regulatory pressure on Big Tech could dampen chip demand.
Long-term (10-20 years):
Quantum computing or neuromorphic chips could challenge traditional GPU architectures. AI infrastructure becomes commodity, margins decline. Geopolitical tensions over semiconductor sovereignty intensify.
Main Summary
Core Theme & Context
The author compares the current Nvidia hype with the dotcom bubble at the Neuer Markt and argues that substantial differences make collapse panic unfounded. Unlike speculative internet companies like Gigabell (1999), Nvidia's success is based on real revenues and profitable business models.
Most Important Facts & Figures
- Q3 Revenue: $57 billion (expectations exceeded)
- Net Profit: $32 billion (record level)
- Market Capitalization: over $5 trillion
- Price-Earnings Ratio: 42 (reduced, but still high)
- Gigabell Comparison: 1999 IPO, 2000 bankruptcy without significant profits
Stakeholders & Affected Parties
Directly Affected: Nvidia shareholders, institutional investors, AI companies (Google, OpenAI), pension funds with tech exposure
Indirectly: Entire technology sector, semiconductor industry, companies with AI transformation plans (insurance, healthcare)
Economically: Capital market stability, AI innovation
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
- Continuation of AI boom with increasing demand for computing power
- Diversification into new application areas (autonomous driving, robotics, medicine)
- Healthy corrections could normalize overheated valuations
Risks:
- Competitive pressure from AMD, Intel, and customer-specific chips
- Regulatory risks with Big Tech customers
- Technology leaps (quantum computing) could end GPU dominance
- Systemic risk: Excessive market concentration on one player
Action Relevance
For Investors: Consider profit-taking at high valuations, but don't fall into panic selling. Review diversification in the AI value chain.
For Companies: Reduce dependence on one chip supplier, evaluate alternative technologies.
For Politics: Strengthen competition oversight, advance European semiconductor sovereignty.
Quality Assurance & Fact-Checking
✅ Verified: Nvidia Q3 figures correspond to official company announcements
✅ Confirmed: Price-earnings ratio and market capitalization currently correct
✅ Historically documented: Gigabell example documented (bankruptcy 2000)
Supplementary Research
- Nvidia Investor Relations Q3 2025 – Official quarterly figures and forecasts
- BIS Semiconductor Market Analysis 2025 – Geopolitical risks in the chip market
- McKinsey Global Institute: AI Infrastructure Report – Long-term AI market development
References
Primary Source:
Nvidia-Zahlen: Hype ist völlig übertrieben – FAZ.net
Verification Status: ✅ Facts checked on 20.11.2025