Author: Siegmund Skalar | Source: Finanz und Wirtschaft | Publication Date: 24.10.2025 | Summary Reading Time: 3 minutes
Executive Summary
US inflation rose to 3% in September - the highest level since January 2025. Despite this development, it does not jeopardize the Federal Reserve's rate cut course. However, the ongoing government shutdown is blocking further economic data releases and putting the Fed in a difficult position for future monetary policy decisions. Action recommendation: Companies should prepare for continued price uncertainty, while markets can continue to expect rate cuts of 25 basis points each.
Main Summary
Core Topic & Context
US inflation reached 3% annual rate in September, the highest level since the beginning of the year. This is the last available inflation measurement before the government shutdown, which stops data collection by government statistical agencies. The figures are slightly below analyst expectations.
Key Facts & Figures
- Overall inflation (CPI): 3% annual rate (vs. expectations slightly higher)
- Monthly price increase: 0.3% compared to August
- Gasoline prices: +4.1% in September (main driver of inflation)
- Core CPI: 3% (excluding energy and food)
- Food prices: +0.2% (moderate increase)
- Rental prices: +0.2% (easing compared to August)
- Clothing: +0.7% (possibly tariff-related)
Stakeholders & Those Affected
- Federal Reserve: Confirmation of current rate cut course
- US consumers: Burden from higher gasoline and clothing prices
- Companies: About one-third of tariff impacts already reached consumers
- Financial markets: Expectation of further rate cuts remains
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
- Fed rate cut course remains intact (25 basis points each expected for October and December)
- Core inflation shows stabilizing trend
- Easing in important categories like rent
Risks:
- Inflation peak not until Q2 2026 projected
- Target of 2% not achievable until 2027
- Data pause due to shutdown complicates Fed decisions
- Next CPI data possibly not until December
Action Relevance
Short-term: Markets expect federal funds rate of 3.5-3.75% by year-end. Long-term: Companies must prepare for continued price uncertainty until at least 2026. The shutdown jeopardizes the data basis for sound economic decisions.
Fact Check
The central figures on US inflation are based on official data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The assessments on tariff impacts and inflation projections come from recognized economic experts.
Verification status: ✅ Facts checked on 24.10.2025
References
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