**Author: 31.10.2025

Core Topic & Context

Europe faces the strategic challenge of breaking free from dependence on US cloud giants. The three hyperscalers Amazon AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud already control 70% of the European market. Given geopolitical tensions and regulatory risks, European companies and institutions are seeking sovereign alternatives without having to sacrifice the performance of global platforms.

⚡ Three Critical Questions

❓ Question 1: Can European companies remain competitive in the long term if they decouple from the most powerful global cloud platforms?

❓ Question 2: Will the fragmented European cloud landscape with national champions represent an effective alternative to integrated US hyperscalers?

❓ Question 3: How will geopolitical tensions between the USA, EU, and China affect global data infrastructure and thus the business models of European companies?

🔮 Future Scenarios

📅 Short-term (1 year)

AWS European Sovereign Cloud launches at the end of 2025 and intensifies competition
Further price increases from US providers (projected: +28% cloud spending, +17% budget overruns)
Increased regulation through EU laws (Data Act, AI Act, Digital Markets Act) leads to operational adjustments
More hybrid multi-cloud strategies as risk mitigation

📅 Medium-term (5 years)

Emergence of industry-specific European data ecosystems (like Catena-X in the automotive industry)
Establishment of the Gaia-X Trust Framework as a technical standard for European cloud interoperability
Asian providers (Huawei, Tencent, Alibaba) increasingly push into the European market
Edge computing and AI integration lead to more decentralized cloud architectures

📅 Long-term (10-20 years)

Split into regional "cloud blocks" along geopolitical boundaries (USA, EU, China)
Federated data ecosystems partially replace centralized hyperscaler models
Sustainability becomes a decisive competitive factor for cloud services
Complete integration of quantum computing and edge AI fundamentally changes infrastructure requirements

Key Facts & Figures

70% market share of the three US hyperscalers in Europe (8 years ago: 29%)
+40% annual growth at European providers like Exoscale
+28% projected increase in global cloud spending 2025
+17% expected budget overruns for cloud projects
10,000 Nvidia GPUs planned by T-Systems for the AI Industry Factory in Munich (start 2026)
98% efficiency of Exoscale's liquid cooling system in Vienna
up to 75% energy savings possible through hybrid edge-cloud-AI combinations

Stakeholders & Affected Parties

Affected Industries: Automotive industry (BMW, Catena-X), financial sector, healthcare, public sector, aerospace European Providers: Exoscale, T-Systems, OVHcloud, Hetzner, Stackit, IONOS, Plusserver Winners: European cloud providers, consulting companies for multi-cloud strategies, data center operators Losers: Companies with strong vendor lock-in, purely US-dependent IT architectures

Opportunities & Risks

Opportunities:

Building strategic digital independence
Development of industry-specific, highly specialized cloud ecosystems
New business models through federated data spaces
Sustainability advantage through more efficient European data centers

Risks:

Fragmentation leads to higher costs and more complex IT landscape
Technological lag behind US hyperscalers in AI and innovation
Vendor lock-in makes migration extremely expensive (as with US Navy)
Regulatory complexity due to incompatible legal systems (USA vs. EU)

Action Relevance

Immediate Measures:

Assessment of current cloud dependencies and vendor lock-in risks
Development of a multi-cloud strategy with European alternatives
Examination of industry-specific data ecosystems (like Catena-X)

Strategic Decisions:

Investment in open standards and portable cloud architectures
Building internal competencies for cloud migration and management
Evaluation of edge computing for time-critical applications

📋 Executive Summary

Europe can no longer break the dominance of US hyperscalers but must build strategic alternatives to preserve digital sovereignty and agency. The key lies not in complete exit but in hybrid multi-cloud strategies and industry-specific data ecosystems. Companies should now assess their dependencies and develop portable cloud architectures before geopolitical tensions or regulatory changes force them into costly emergency migrations. The next 2-3 years will be decisive for whether Europe can establish a credible alternative to US platforms.

✅ Fact Check

Market shares of hyperscalers are plausible and correspond to industry reports
Flexera 2025 State of the Cloud Report as source for cost increases verifiable
Gaia-X Initiative and its development corresponds to publicly available information
[⚠️ To be verified] Exact growth figures of Exoscale (40% p.a.)
[⚠️ To be verified] Specific technical details about T-Systems AI Factory