Author: Alfons Cortés | Source: The Market | Publication Date: October 2024 | Reading Time: 3 minutes
Executive Summary
Geopolitical disruptions and infrastructure deficits are driving a new capex cycle and a gold bubble that has been developing since fall 2022. Gold rose from 2,044 USD (March 2024) to over 4,381 USD (October 2024) - an increase of 115%. The expert recommends staying in the market despite bubble formation, as speculative bubbles typically last longer and reach higher prices than expected.
Core Theme & Context
Current market activity is dominated by a capex narrative driven by geopolitical tensions, neglected infrastructure, and environmental challenges. These uncertainties are leading to both increased capital investments and rising gold prices - both phenomena follow the same underlying narrative.
Key Facts & Figures
• Gold Performance: Rise from 2,044 USD to 4,381 USD (March-October 2024) = +115% • Gold Mining Index: NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index gained 200% since March 2024 • Bubble Indicator: Bollinger Band shows 40-month spread - classic bubble pattern • Consolidations: Three corrections have so far reduced bubble toxicity • Timeline: Current narrative has been developing since fall 2022
Stakeholders & Those Affected
Directly affected:
- Investors in commodities and precious metals
- Gold mining companies and their shareholders
- Asset managers and institutional investors
Industries: Mining, infrastructure, technology (capex-intensive sectors)
Opportunities & Risks
Opportunities:
- Speculative bubbles are the most lucrative phases for investors
- Gold mines offer disproportionate profit opportunities
- Long-term infrastructure and technology investments
Risks:
- Bubble formation carries inherent crash risk
- Timing of bubble burst difficult to predict
- Geopolitical escalation could amplify narratives
Action Relevance
Recommendation: Stay in the market despite bubble formation Exit Signal: Only sell approximately 20% below the price peak Observation: Next weeks decisive - stagnation between 3,800-4,200 USD would be ideal consolidation scenario
⚠️ Time-critical: Premature exit from speculative bubbles is, according to the expert, one of the biggest investment mistakes
Bibliography
Primary Source:
Supplementary Sources:
Verification Status: ✅ Facts checked as of December 2024
Note: Speculative bubbles involve increased risk of loss. This analysis does not constitute investment advice.